Brewers trade rumors will spark Astros excitement (and frustration)

The offseason is quickly shaping up to be an arms race. All-Star caliber pitches such as Tarik Skubal, Sonny Gray, and Hunter Greene have already been rumored to be on the trade block this winter, and names from the deadline--Sandy Alcantara, Joe Ryan, MacKenzie Gore, and Mitch Keller--could also be on the move.

Even the Milwaukee Brewers are flirting with the idea of trading Freddy Peralta this offseason. This would all seem ideal for the Houston Astros, who will likely need to replace Framber Valdez, but there is one hurdle that they may not be able to clear.

The Brewers shopping Peralta is the perfect example of why the Astros may be forced to watch from the sidelines this season. The expectation is that the Brewers will pick up the $8 million option on Peralta's deal for 2026, but as a free agent next year, the 29-year-old starting pitcher could be the latest in an ongoing trend for Milwaukee.

Milwaukee hasn't been shy about moving players on expiring deals, considering they traded Josh Hader at the trade deadline in 2022, Corbin Burnes after the 2023 season, and Devin Williams last winter. Conventional wisdom points to Peralta being the next blockbuster trade for the reigning National League Central champions.

Brewers' trade plans for Freddy Peralta could both thrill and crush Astros fans

With an $8 million price tag, the Brewers likely won't be focused on how much money they're absorbing in a potential deal. Instead, Peralta's affordable salary in 2026 places the focus strictly on the prospects that Milwaukee could get back in a deal. This is where the Astros almost immediately lose credibility as a potential suitor for Peralta.

Teams like the Baltimore Orioles, Detroit Tigers, and Cincinnati Reds are all expected to be involved in the trade market for starting pitchers. The Astros do not have the prospect capital to match what the Brewers could land elsewhere.

It's a curious situation that the Astros find themselves in. They don't have the prospect capital to acquire a top-of-the-rotation starting pitcher in the trade market, and they may not have the financial freedom to spend at the top of the free-agent market.

Perhaps that leads the Astros to a pitcher like Keller, instead of Peralta, who has an affordable contract and wouldn't cost nearly as much as the Brewers' ace in a potential trade.