Blue Jays pitcher’s bold decision ends Astros' pursuit before it even began

The Houston Astros have a need for an established starting pitcher this offseason, and they've already lost out on a clear target to replace Framber Valdez. With free agency opening on Thursday, former American League Cy Young award winner Shane Bieber made the surprising decision to exercise his $16MM option for 2026. Instead of hitting the free-agent market, Bieber will now be returning to the Toronto Blue Jays.

It's certainly possible that Bieber, entering what will be his first full season since undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2024, doesn't believe he will have a healthy market, and that was the incentive for his sudden return to Toronto. That isn't the likeliest scenario, considering he was a part of the Blue Jays' World Series rotation.

A backward argument could also suggest that Bieber picking up his option is a sign that teams may not be willing to spend on pitching this offseason, but logic doesn't really defend that stance. Perhaps there's an underlying medical concern, and Bieber just wanted to grab any bag as soon as he could. Or, the simplest and likely truest solution, Bieber enjoyed his time in Toronto and didn't want to go through the drama of free agency.

Shane Bieber's stunning contract decision leaves the Astros with one less free agent option

The Blue Jays traded for Bieber while he was rehabbing from the aforementioned Tommy John surgery, and the veteran certainly provided stability to the backend of their rotation. Bieber posted an ERA of 3.57 while closing out the season with Toronto, striking out over 23% of the hitters he faced. Assuming health, The Athletic's Jim Bowden had Bieber in line to receive a three-year deal this offseason worth $75MM.

For the same reasons that Valdez's return to Houston is not likely, the assumption is that the Astros will not be serious bidders for Dylan Cease or Ranger Suarez. Bieber fell into that tier of pitchers that Houston likely prefers this offseason, assuming they are able to clear payroll space. With Bieber now off the board, the Astros could pivot in the direction of Zac Gallen. Gallen may need a quick fix in order to regain his top-of-the-rotation form, but it shouldn't be that expensive.