Baseball America's breakout Astros prospect could be an impact fast riser

The Houston Astros' farm system has been in a sorry state for a while. The years of contention have left the fields barren, while the sign-stealing penalties levied against the team accelerated its decline. That has put Houston in a bad way, with numerous holes on the big league roster, a tight budget to fix those deficiencies, and little talent waiting in the wings to replenish the pipeline.

With that said, Dana Brown has gone to work trying to fix the issues that plague Houston in the minor leagues. Fixes don't happen overnight, but a fast riser or two can make a world of difference. That's where a prospect Baseball America (subscription required) named the most likely to breakout comes into play.

Ethan Frey might not have gotten the same fanfare as the club's first-round pick, Xavier Neyens, when the books were closed on the draft, but this honor, his profile, and what he's done since should have you optimistic that he can be a game-changer for the franchise.

Baseball America names Ethan Frey the Astros' prospect most likely to breakout, and that could have a big impact on the farm system

To call Ethan Frey a prospect who will break out rather than one who already has dismisses what he did in his professional debut. After two injury-plagued years to start his career at LSU, Frey showed off the tools that made him a highly-touted recruit coming out of high school.

At six-foot-six, 225 pounds, Frey is an imposing specimen, and finally healthy, he slashed .331/.420/.641 with 13 homers in 212 plate appearances. The power potential was finally on display after two homerless seasons to begin his collegiate career.

After being drafted, he landed in Fayetteville to try his hand against Single-A competition and dominated. In 26 games, he hit .330/.434/.470 with three dingers. The production was impressive, but the way he got there is why you should feel encouraged that he can rise quickly through the system.

Despite the increase in competition, Frey increased his walk rate and decreased his strikeout rate after making the leap from college. This year at LSU, he struck out 22.2% of the time while drawing free passes at a 13.7% clip, but at Fayetteville, those rates came in at 20.5% and 16.4%, respectively.

Frey was able to do that thanks to his selectivity at the plate. At Fayetteville, he posted a judicious 37.6% swing rate, but still managed an impressive 83.4% contact rate. When he swung, he rarely missed with a minuscule 6.2% swinging strike percentage.

Essentially, Frey was exceptional with his strike zone recognition and only swung the bat at pitches that were both in the zone and that he could do damage on. Single-A hurlers aren't the most advanced; many are heavily reliant on their fastballs, but it's still impressive given the leap. For reference, Cam Smith's time in A-ball saw him swing 41.9% of the time with a 76.9% contact rate and a 9.7 swinging-strike rate.

There's more to get you excited, too. Typically, hitters of Frey's size have trouble with the swing and miss thanks to their long levers, but Frey employs a short, compact swing from the right side. As a result, he negates that potential deficiency and takes an all-fields approach, which bodes well for his hit tool. In A-ball, his batted ball distribution was almost exactly even between pulled balls, those hit back up the middle, and those sent the other way.

Because of his size and strength, he doesn't have to sell out for power. That means he can take a contact approach and go where the pitch is thrown, knowing that he doesn't have to pull off in order to generate pop.

Beyond the offensive profile, Frey shows great athleticism. He stole nine bases in his 26 minor league games and has the range and arm strength to play either center or right.

Lastly, his age plays a role and could help him move up quickly. Frey turns 22 on March 15, meaning he's already more mature than most Single-A hitters. In addition to the other factors outlined above, his age could help him move quickly through the system in 2026.

Frey has been named one of the best values in the draft, and as the early returns on his performance show, you can see why. Houston's 2025 third-round pick might not be toiling in the minors for long, and if he rises quickly and continues to display these skills, it will go a long way toward turning around the perception of Houston's farm system.