Baseball America mock draft has Astros gambling on high-risk high school slugger

One of the primary reasons the Houston Astros hired Dana Brown to be the team's GM was his scouting background and the ability to build a talent pipeline via the draft. Many of Brown's drafts from his time with the Atlanta Braves were highly lauded and yielded multiple impact big leaguers. Brown is known to place his bets based on who the organization likes and not what the so-called "expert" rankings say. Still, Baseball America projecting a high-ceiling high school bat in the 2025 MLB Draft feels very much like a Brown pick.

When he was with the Braves, Brown looked at Spencer Schwellenbach, a shortstop and reliever, and saw a potential frontline starting pitcher. So far, he's been proven right. Brown used the Astros' first round pick in 2023 on the uber-athletic, but raw Brice Matthews and he has morphed into one of the better infield prospects in baseball. For the 2025 MLB Draft, BA's Carlos Collazo has the Astros gambling on high school third baseman Xavier Neyens with their first round pick.

Baseball America's mock projects Astros to pick Xavier Neyens in the 2025 MLB Draft

Mock drafts that are released this far out from the actual MLB Draft are not going to be particularly close to what the first round actually looks like. Teams are still finalizing their own draft boards and figuring out exactly who they like and how much they are going to cost. There isn't a great way to project draft picks in baseball two months out, but these mocks do give a sense of where the industry currently views draft prospects within a bit of a range.

In Neyens, Houston would be getting a bat with similar upside to Ethan Holliday, a player who most draft experts believe could go first overall just like his brother Jackson. Neyens won't be an up-the-middle defender, but either of the corner infield or outfield spots are not out of the question. What you're buying is the bat, which has at least plus power. Neyens has as a knack for getting on base as well.

There are real questions, however, about the amount of swing and miss Neyens has shown in high school. He'll occasionally chase pitches out of the strike zone, and those concerns will certainly become magnified he enters pro ball.

That said, left-handed bats with this kind of power and frame combined with a cannon for an arm are hard to come by. With Brown's willingness to take some risks and Neyens' upside, this does feel like a possible match. Astros fans might prefer a college player who is a little closer to being ready, but Brown could be ready to take another gamble.

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