Baseball America confirmed what Astros fans already knew about this former top prospect

As fun as they can be to follow in the minors, prospects will break your heart more often than not. Baseball is a meat grinder of a sport that requires being elite to even have a chance in the majors, and a whole lot of talented prospects simply could not get over the hump for one reason or another. For Houston Astros prospect Luis Baez, that drop-off may have come sooner than anyone thought.

When the Astros gave Baez $1.3 million back in 2022, they were betting that his prodigious raw power would translate as a professional and that he would develop into a middle-of-the-order bat. Things went to plan in the low minors, but questions about his hit tool began to arise as he ascended the minor league ladder. Baez's ranking in Houston's farm system understandably began a steady decline as a result.

Baez is still just 22 years old at this point, so not all hope is lost. However, Baseball America recently put together a list of Astros prospects that finished outside their top 30, and their write-up on Baez was extremely telling.

Luis Baez's horrid approach at the plate may keep the Astros prospect from becoming anything at all

BA took care to remind everyone that if Baez can make some adjustments, his power is still good enough to give him a chance at making it to the big leagues. His contact skills in the strike zone were also lauded, which is something to provide some hope at least.

However, Baseball America was less kind when talking about his chase rate. While it is true that Baez does have good bat-to-ball skills when it comes to the pitches he should be swinging at, having a 34.2% chase rate in the minors is a really good way to never see pitches to hit because opposing pitchers know he is going up there hacking regardless.

Changing a prospect's approach at the plate can be really tricky, given that swing decisions, in the moment, are very often instinctual. Baez is going to have to figure out a way to pick up pitches better and be willing to let more of them go past him if he is going to come anywhere close to reaching his ceiling. There is still a chance, but the odds are going down by the day.