Astros’ window to extend Jeremy Peña may have already passed

Jeremy Peña was one of the Houston Astros' breakout stars and biggest success stories in what was an otherwise disappointing 2025 campaign. For years, the Astros had waited for the shortstop to reach his full potential, hoping that his bat would catch up with his glove and elevate him to superstar status.

That's exactly what happened, as the 28-year-old earned his first All-Star nod and a Silver Slugger nomination. Peña finally vaulted himself from a slick fielding shortstop with some wheels on the basepaths, but just a roughly average bat, to a player who can impact the game in all facets.

The total package was stunning. His .304/.363/.477 line with 17 homers was good for a 135 wRC+, and when combined with eight outs above average at the game's most important defensive position and 20 steals in 22 attempts, you get a sizzling 5.7 fWAR that ranked 13th in baseball.

The recent trend has been for clubs to extend their young stars following a breakout campaign, and one has to look no further than the division rival Athletics and their most recent deal with Tyler Soderstrom to see what that might look like.

However, in the case of Peña and the Astros, such a move is too little, too late.

The Astros missed their window to lock up Jeremy Peña to an extension

The first issue at hand is that Peña is already in the arbitration process. A free agent after the 2027 season, any extension now isn't buying out cheap pre-arb years and will come closer to market rates.

That's a problem for Houston. While the club managed to scrounge together some change to sign Tatsuya Imai, the budget for 2026 has been tight and looks no better in 2027. Jim Crane isn't a fan of crossing the luxury tax line, so an extension at the rates Peña will command likely won't fit in with what the Astros are willing to commit to payroll.

Even if the club were willing to give him an extension worthy of his performance and position in the arbitration process, Peña likely isn't willing to talk about a deal. In the midst of his ascension to stardom in 2025, he changed agents, hiring the cutthroat Scott Boras, who is well-known for taking his clients to free agency in order to extract every penny.

Houston had their opportunities. From 2022 to 2024, Peña recorded a .261/.307/.399/ line, good for a 99 wRC+. Throw in superb defense at shortstop, and he was roughly a 3 fWAR player per season, which isn't something that grows on trees.

Had the Astros acted earlier, they'd look like they made one of the shrewdest moves, getting the breakout sensation at below market value. Now, they'll likely have to win a bidding war ahead of the 2028 campaign to retain him, which, given what we know about the club, seems unlikely.

It feels inevitable that Peña will follow in the footsteps of home-grown talents like Alex Bregman and George Springer, bolting elsewhere because Houston can't pay up. What makes this potential reality all the more tragic is that it was completely avoidable, but the Astros dragged their feet.