Astros trade plans for Isaac Paredes may hinge on overlooked contract detail

Unless it involves the Detroit Tigers and Tarik Skubal, arbitration hearing results are a rather procedural happenstance at the end of the offseason. It's why no one really batted an eye when The Athletic's Chandler Rome reported that the Houston Astros and Isaac Paredes were actually avoiding the hearing, settling on a $9.35 million salary for the 2026 season.

The curious development was when the Astros announced the deal. What Rome's report failed to mention was that Paredes' agreement with the Astros includes a club option for 2027.

Oftentimes, agreements to avoid arbitration aren't exactly telling when it comes to a player's future with a team. That may not be the case for Paredes and the Astros.

Did the Astros just tip their hand with the situation between Isaac Paredes and Christian Walker?

The option does convert to a mutual option if the All-Star third baseman has a top-10 MVP finish, but more importantly, it could be a step closer to having cost certainty. The club option doesn't buy out the final year of Paredes' arbitration. In other words, if the Astros decline the club option at the end of the season, they still hold his rights and will have the option of tendering him a contract for 2027.

This is a similar situation the Brewers found themselves in this offseason when they declined William Contreras' club option for 2026, because it would have been more expensive than what he was projected to receive in arbitration.

That is a level of creativity the Astros didn't exactly have to reach with Paredes, considering they already held his rights through the 2027 season. That said, ensuring this form of cost certainty may have tipped Houston's hand when it comes to the decision they have to make between Paredes and Christian Walker.

The impression was that the Astros preferred to keep Paredes over Walker, and his agreement with the team this week probably confirms that. When it comes to who is fit for the Astros beyond this season, it's easily Paredes. His swing is perfect for Daikin Park, and he is only 26 years old. On the other side, Walker is making a lot of money as an aging slugging first baseman coming off a somewhat down year.

That's all fine and dandy, but until the Astros find a taker for Walker and his contract, the rumors of a potential Paredes trade aren't going away.