Astros top prospect's AFL hot streak has cooled while chronic concern lingers

Much of the rebound the Houston Astros are hoping to see from their maligned farm system hinges on top prospect Walker Janek. The 23-year-old was Houston's first round pick in 2024, delighting the team's brass as they were able to snag the draft's top-ranked catcher all the way down at the 28th pick.

Regarded as a superb defender, the hope was that Janek could develop a balanced offensive profile and be a two-way force that is rarely seen from behind the plate. His initial foray into professional ball didn't go as planned, however, with a .175/.214/.289 line with a 29.1% strikeout rate against a 3.9% walk rate at high-A Asheville.

Repeating high-A in 2025, Janek looked much improved, slashing .263/.333/.433 with 12 homers in 92 games. It seemed as if he was on the verge of fast-tracking himself to the bigs, but the strikeouts remained a concern with only a marginal improvement to 26.6%

After a hot start, Walker Janek has cooled off in the Arizona Fall League while the strikeout bug persists

Janek's participation in the Arizona Fall League was much anticipated, and at first, he was on a roll. Janek is third in the AFL in RBIs with 20, which sounds impressive until you realize that seven of them came in one game.

There's another metric where Janek ranks near the top of the fall showcase leaderboards, but this one is a more dubious distinction. With 22 strikeouts in just 13 games, the young catcher has struck out the second-most times in the league. He's recorded just four walks to offset those Ks, and with just 59 plate appearances, Janek's K-rate comes in at 37.3%. Over his last seven contests, Janek has just a .360 OPS out in the Arizona desert.

The AFL is well known for having some of the best of the best the minor leagues have to offer, competing in an iron-sharpening-iron type of contest. While Janek hasn't reached the upper minors like some of his competition, the Sam Houston State product is one of the on-par age-wise with most of his competitors.

Of course, small sample size caveats apply here. However, given that this was an issue for his 25-game stretch of pro action in 2024 as well as the entirety of his 2025 campaign, it's worth sounding the alarm.

Typically, strikeouts go up and not down as a player advances through the system. If he's already starting out at such a high point, there should be legitimate concern as to whether or not he'll be able to control the zone well enough to eventually secure a big league role.

Janek was already a minor leaguer to watch in 2026, but now, with this latest bout of struggles, he's worth monitoring even more to figure out whether this is a prolonged growing pain or a crippling whiff by the front office.