Astros' succession plan seemingly unfolding, but a familiar stumbling block exists

Hunter Brown proved once again that he's the future ace of the Houston Astros starting rotation. The right-hander went six strong and allowed just four hits while striking out four and held the St. Louis Cardinals scoreless during Houston's 2-0 win on Tuesday night at Busch Stadium.

So far this season, Brown is now 2-1 with a 1.50 ERA, 22 punch outs, and a 0.83 WHIP through his first four starts. Astros fans always assumed this was the type of frontline starter Brown could be, and he's proven as much so far this season.

With Framber Valdez all but guaranteed to fly the coop and head for greener pastures next winter, Brown will undoubtedly succeed the left-hander as the Astros' No. 1 starter heading into the 2026 season. But Brown's going to start becoming more expensive starting next year, and if the Astros aren't careful, they'll be back in the same position they find themselves currently.

Astros' succession plan seemingly unfolding, but Houston can't allow Hunter Brown's negotiations to linger

Less than six months ago, the Astros were shopping their best starting pitcher and All-Star outfielder on the trade market. Houston had their backs against the wall—financially speaking—and needed to decide between keeping Valdez or Kyle Tucker. They decided to keep the former and jettison the latter. But there's still a problem; Valdez isn't sticking around either.

Like so many others before him, Valdez will run out his time in Houston without a contract extension, and find a new home this coming winter. Could the Astros swing in at the last minute in a desperate attempt to bring back left-hander back to Houston? Sure, but their track record says otherwise.

So with Valdez on his way out, and Brown ascending the ladder, Houston's ownership and front office need to prioritize keeping their young hurler for the long haul. The Astros were said to have had discussions about extending Brown prior to last season, but negotiations never got off the ground. Now they've got to deal with Scott Boras, who is notorious for taking his clients all the way to free agency.

At the moment, the succession plan—Valdez ceding the top spot in the starting rotation to Brown—is unfolding exactly how Houston anticipated. But if they fail to seal the deal, we'll be having this same conversation in about three years.

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