Astros’ rotation plans look sketchy in aftermath of Tatsuya Imai’s spring training debut

There is a strong case to be made that the most important Houston Astros player this season will be Tatsuya Imai. This year's big signing comes with big expectations, but also big question marks.

Even last season, despite Hunter Brown's third-place finish in the AL Cy Young race and another superb season from Framber Valdez, the starting rotation had become an issue. Now Valdez is gone, and his direct replacement is Imai, who won't just be adapting to life with a new team, but also life in a new country.

The Astros are bending over backwards to set him up for success, planning to run a six-man rotation to keep their prized acquisition on the same schedule he's been accustomed to while pitching in Japan.

Imai is an enigma. Originally thought to get between $150-$190 million in free agency, he settled for a maximum of $63 million over three years with Houston. That begs some questions, like what does the rest of the league see that discouraged the nine-figure investment in him that seemed like a foregone conclusion?

The first look at Imai in camp turned heads. His splitter was unlike anything his teammates had ever seen before. Those reports generated a lot of hype for his spring debut, but after just one inning and 10 pitches, we have some concerns.

There are valid concerns after Tatsuya Imai's abbreviated Astros spring training debut

Pitch counts and short outings are a fact of life in spring training, especially early on. Pitchers are just starting to get ramped up, and it's not uncommon to see lower velocities as the hurlers carefully build up their arms for the 162-game marathon.

Still, throwing a couple of innings and tossing somewhere between 30-45 pitches in a spring debut is common for a starter. However, according to Joe Espada, everything was going according to plan with Imai throwing just 10 pitches.

That's where the questions begin. What is the plan? Using a six-man rotation to comfort Imai has a cost. The additional starter means one less arm in the bullpen, which could have some serious adverse effects.

Those concerning adverse effects become certainties if Imai isn't able to handle a normal starter's workload once Opening Day rolls around. If he doesn't get enough work in this spring, his arm won't be built up enough to handle a normal pitch count.

Wearing down an already short bullpen right out of the gate doesn't seem to be a solid plan. More importantly, what does this say about Imai and the rotation overall?

One of the things that made Valdez so valuable was his ability to eat innings. He tossed the second-most frames in baseball since 2022. If Imai isn't fully built up, it would be fine if there were more certainty further down the rotation, but despite the plethora of options, there is little certainty.

Imai is crucial not only to the rotation's success, but to the Astros' success as a whole. If the club wants to return to the playoffs, they'll need a better-than-average rotation. That means a few of these other guys will need to step up, but even that likely won't matter if Imai isn't a full go to begin the season. Houston can't afford a slow start, and it's starting to look like Imai won't immediately be at full strength, which is very worrying.