Astros must be bold before Hunter Brown follows this excruciatingly familiar pattern

As has become customary (unfortunately) for the Houston Astros, it's become clear that the team is likely to lose another star in Framber Valdez after the season. Despite previous overtures to sign Valdez to a long-term contract extension, the Astros has been unable to come to terms with the left-hander, and he's now extremely likely to test free agency. If that happens, the Astros need to work out a long-term deal with Hunter Brown before it is too late.

Brown is the ideal type of player to target right now. The right-hander has frontline starter stuff and has looked great to begin the season. However, his track record is still a little spotty which could reduce his negotiating leverage, especially given the risk that comes with extending pitchers.

However, wanting to extend Brown and actually doing so are two very different things. Houston could find themselves with some familiar difficulties in trying to pull it off.

Hunter Brown is perfect fit for Astros extension except for one glaring problem

Brown is just 26 years old, will be 29 by the time he hits free agency. Buying those first couple years of team control are generally less expensive than waiting for the player to actually improve. Between the potential cost savings, and the fact that Brown looks as though he could be an ace-level talent for years to come, the Astros have a pitcher who should be part of their long-term plans.

There is a problem, though, and that problem is Scott Boras. Brown recently hired Boras to be his agent, and Houston's history with baseball's super-agent hasn't been the best. If there was any hope for Brown to give Houston a hometown discount, those hopes died the day he signed with Boras. Fans have already seen evidence of this after previous extension talks didn't go anywhere. The word is now that Brown doesn't seem interested in further negotiations.

That doesn't mean there's zero hope for an extension, but the Astros are going to have to step out of their comfort zone and be bold in order to pull it off. Owner Jim Crane hates expensive, long-term deals, but Houston doesn't have much in the way of high-end pitching talent in the minors right now, and are going to need a top-of-the-rotation starter they can rely on for the next several seasons.

There's no point to search for a potential contract comp. The "Boras tax" is going to be very real, and to be blunt, Brown wouldn't have hired him if that wasn't the case. Texas' lack of an income tax helps, along with Brown's relative lack of experience at the moment. However, potential terms of a deal may not be too dissimilar to Corbin Burnes' deal with the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Obviously committing $30-plus million per season to any player, let alone a pitcher, is a dangerous proposition, especially if Houston wishes to avoid paying the luxury tax. However, the Astros are going to have to make an actual bet on one of their stars sooner or later if they want to stay competitive, and Brown is a player worth taking a chance on.

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