Astros may lose Rule 5 pick if he doesn’t win roster spot without a shadow of doubt

For the most part, Rule 5 draft picks don't amount to much. If a player's team is unwilling to put a guy on their 40-man roster to protect them from the Rule 5, the odds that player is any good go down dramatically. However, it still looked like the Houston Astros may have found a diamond in the rough when they stole Roddery Muñoz from the Reds.

Muñoz got his start with the Braves, where he rightfully earned a reputation for being a pitcher who had pretty great stuff, but wasn't particularly good at commanding that stuff. After Atlanta decided to designate him for assignment, Muñoz bounced around the league a bit with stops with the Nationals, Marlins, Cardinals, and Reds in one form or another before Houston scooped him up this past offseason.

Getting talent for next to no cost is always fun, but the Astros' bullpen competition this spring sets the stage for the team to be unable to capitalize on their opportunity with Muñoz.

Roddery Muñoz needs a great spring if he wants to stay with the Astros

It is important not to oversell Muñoz here. He was a Rule 5 pick for a reason, after all, and Muñoz's career 6.73 ERA across 27 appearances doesn't exactly scream "stud" as good as his fastball/slider combo can be. If Houston decides he doesn't quite make the cut, needing to offer him back to Cincinnati isn't going to be much of a loss.

The problem is that Muñoz making the Astros' bullpen might not have much to do with how good he plays. Houston has a number of bullpen candidates that don't have minor league options left, including Muñoz. Normally, this would give Muñoz a leg up in any competition against others with options, but most of the guys he is actually competing with are in the same boat as him and are more established big leaguers than he is.

As a result, Muñoz is going to have to absolutely shove this spring if he wants any chance at making an Opening Day roster. In that world, the Astros could probably be convinced to keep him around and give him a chance. Even if Houston decides to look elsewhere, a strong spring may be what Muñoz needs to catch on with the Reds (or another club) in 2026.