Astros may have to make impossible choice when it comes to Jose Altuve

No one, and we mean no one, is arguing that Jose Altuve hasn't been among the most important players in Houston Astros history. Others can debate the merits of other Astros greats like Jeff Bagwell and Craig Biggio, but Altuve has been the linchpin of multiple World Series titles, and that status alone made the Astros giving Altuve one last extension make all the sense in the world at the time.

However, extending Altuve at that stage of his career brought some real risk. He was already showing some signs of decline at the time, and at 36 years old, he is making a lot of money this year and next before his contract gets a bit more reasonable towards the backend. Few expected Altuve to be worth the entirety of the money in his contract, but the steep drop-off in production last year was concerning even by that standard.

In fact, if Altuve's trends continue down this path, the Astros may be forced into an uncomfortable situation where they can't afford to play Altuve if their goal is truly to remain competitive during the duration of his deal.

Jose Altuve's decline is setting the stage for an ugly end to his time with the Astros

Obviously, there is almost zero chance that the Astros are going to bench Altuve in 2026. While his line at the plate last year--.265/.329/.442--wasn't amazing; it was more than good enough to show that he is still a big league hitter, and his status with the organization will give him plenty of leash to play with.

However, we could see the narrative change if Altuve struggles this season. After back-to-back seasons with an OPS north of .900 in 2022 and 2023, Altuve has now had two seasons in a row where he didn't even crack .800, and his .771 mark last season was his lowest non-COVID season since 2013. Formally a perennial 20+-20+ threat, Altuve's average exit velocity cratered last season, and his sprint speed was towards the bottom third in all of baseball.

All of these things happen to players as they age, and they don't change the player that Altuve was. However, let's say we see a 50-point drop in Altuve's OPS and he continues to get exposed on defense (in the outfield or at second base), there are going to be questions as to his viability in Houston's lineup going forward. The Astros could decide that those last two years of Altuve's deal at $13 million are an acceptable trade-off to give the franchise face a proper farewell tour. That is not a sure thing whatsoever, though, and we have seen what Dana Brown is willing to do if an older player isn't getting it done anymore.