Astros may already have Bryan Abreu replacement before free agency hits

Bryan Abreu has been a staple in the Houston Astros bullpen for the last six years. While never the closer, he was one of the most effective eighth-inning arms in baseball. Since 2021, the righty's 158 and 2/3 innings pitched in the eighth are the second most, and his 1.99 ERA is the second best. Astros fans have known that when he came into the game, the score wasn't changing heading to the ninth.

Now 29 years old, Abreu's is about to hit free agency. Astros fans will want him re-signed. Even though this season hasn't been as elite as previous years, having a combo like Abreu and Josh Hader for the eighth and ninth is a luxury that's hard to come by. Houston doesn't need to resign him, though.

The emergence of AJ Blubaugh should allow Houston to let Abreu walk into free agency without any worry. The starter-turned-reliever has turned into a bullpen weapon for the Astros this season. He has a 3.17 ERA in 82 and 1/3 innings pitched, and since the start of June, he's pitched 45.2 innings with a 2.17 ERA.

Blubaugh, like Abreu, is a righty, the perfect setup man for a lefty closer like Hader. He also has a 1.47 ERA in 18 and 2/3 innings in the eighth inning this season. While that is a limited sample compared to the rest of his season, of the 46 relievers with 18 or more innings pitched in the 8th inning this season, Blubaugh's ERA ranks 7th. He has also held opponents to a .396 OPS in situations Baseball Reference deems high leverage.

AJ Blubaugh's rise and Jim Crane's unwillingness to spend are a perfect storm for Bryan Abreu's exit

The Blubaugh becoming a high-end reliever couldn't have come at a better time for Houston. Abreu is going to be in for a payday this offseason. Not many relievers hit free agency with his level of consistent production, at his age. While relievers can be finicky and their performance can go up and down from season to season, Abreu hasn't, and that means any team looking for back-end bullpen help will be reaching out to him with a contract offer.

Owner Jim Crane said in the past that he would go over the luxury tax for the right situation. Houston isn't over the tax in 2026. With a new GM on the way, it doesn't seem likely that the 2027 Astros, in the state the current team is in, would get that chance. While resigning Abreu might not put them over the tax on his own, it would make roster construction a lot harder if Crane isn't willing to go over the luxury tax. They are also already paying Josh Hader $19 million per year.  

The emergence of a reliever like Blubaugh makes the decision to let Abreu leave this winter a lot easier. He has shown the ability to be elite and that he can handle high-leverage situations. He seems like a seamless fit into the setup role in 2027.

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