Astros' late rally against Yankees doesn't change Houston's Ethan Pecko problem

The Houston Astros' bats bailed out the Astros on Tuesday night in the Bronx, and if you only look at the final score, it sure seems like a fun win. It was a back-and-forth slugfest with a late-inning rally to win 9-7 over one of the top teams in the American League. It gave the Astros a half-game lead over the Texas Rangers, who lost. Yainer Diaz hit two home runs. Jeremy Peña got one of his own. Yordan Alvarez tripled. It had everything you wanted in a road win.

Well, almost. Ethan Pecko, making his second start in the Major Leagues, got hit around again. Pecko gave up five runs on five hits in 4.1 innings with four walks. The offense is taking attention away from the struggles, but they’re definitely a problem.

With Ethan Pecko, walks are the real story (and the biggest problem) here

Pecko lasted only 4.1 innings, mostly because he just wasn’t good enough to get more outs, but he also used 88 pitches to get through them. This is one start after needing 89 pitches to get through just 3.2 innings. Against the Yankees, he only struck out one batter. He gave up a three-run home run to Cody Bellinger and a two-run home run to Luis Garcia. While the results were somewhat better in his first start, with four strikeouts and only two runs allowed, there were a lot of parallels.

These are two starts where the pitch count outran the innings. These are two outings where damage came because hitters started seeing pitches out of the zone. It may not quite be a pattern just yet, but it’s certainly more than bad luck. It’s kind of par for the course for the Astros. Pecko is the 17th starting pitcher Houston has used this year, tying the franchise record. They brought him in because the rotation has been a problem since the start of the season. He was a response to a problem, but not a plan.

Pecko is a 24-year-old still working back from thoracic outlet syndrome. He relies on a funky arm slot and deception, and doesn’t have great stuff. That profile can absolutely work, but the margin for error is much smaller. And a smaller margin means that walks will often hurt more than they would for someone like, say, Hunter Brown.

There were warning signs in the minors. During a strong run at AAA Sugar Land, his swing-and-miss rate was fading while the end results were still good. Pitchers can succeed with soft contact and weak groundouts, but big league hitters are better than those he faced in the minors. A Yankees lineup that will spit on borderline pitches and force him to get in the zone will do exactly what they did against him.

The offense didn’t really need to cover for him in his first start. It was a 3-2 final against the Angels. But they desperately needed to cover for him in this one. They scored three in the eighth to take the lead, and added one in the ninth on a Cam Smith triple and Diaz single for insurance. It worked for a night because Diaz hit like a middle-of-the-order thumper and others came through. But it’s not a plan that can work through September and October.

The Astros are 66-66 and in first place while also staying in the Wild Card race for that third spot. It would be easy to say the rest of the division and the league won’t wait for a rookie to figure things out, but it seems they might. Joe Espada doesn’t have the luxury of a deep bullpen to lean on for four or five innings every fifth day, especially when he’s having to do that more than once every fifth day. And that’s where the trouble really is. Pecko needs more time, but the Astros don’t have that time to give him.

Wins like Tuesday’s are great in the moment, and nobody should argue against them. But they make it easier to paper over the real issue: Houston needs reliable starters, and they simply don’t have them. The latest attempt has walked more hitters than he’s struck out in his two big league starts. Alvarez might bail him out every time. But you can’t count on monster games from Diaz every time. Eventually, the Astros will need Pecko to get through five or six innings and help a lineup that has been up and down itself.

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