Top Astros pitching prospect has looked good lately, but one odd flaw has emerged

Ethan Pecko is doing what prospects are supposed to do. He’s giving the Houston Astros something to talk about. After finishing May with back-to-back clunkers, he’s had an excellent June. It started with four shutout innings, but then he threw seven innings in each of his next two, allowing just one run over those starts. And he gave up one run over six in his last start as well.

That’s the kind of run that gets a name onto a whiteboard in the Astros front office as the organization works to make a run at the postseason with a starting rotation that has struggled. And yet, the box score is telling another story that isn’t as positive. Because for a guy who has missed bats in his minor league career, which has led to him being ranked in the top six on the main prospect lists, the strikeouts have quietly dropped during his run of success.

Ethan Pecko is mowing down Triple-A, just not with strikeouts

There is plenty of good. On June 11, Pecko gave up just two hits over seven shutout innings. It was the longest outing of his career. A week later, he threw seven innings again and gave up just the one run, retiring 11 straight from the third through the seventh. Add in the six innings he threw on Wednesday, and his June looks fantastic: 24 innings pitched, 13 hits, 2 runs, 5 walks…and 16 strikeouts

He’s looked every bit the part of someone who could grab the next open rotation spot, and with this rotation, you never know when the Astros might need someone. Pecko has been efficient, getting deep into games, giving up soft contact everywhere. For a pitcher with Tommy John Surgery in his past who hasn’t really piled up innings, learning how to get 21 outs on fewer than 100 pitches is a pretty good tool to have.

But what’s interesting is that the swing-and-miss just hasn’t been there. The 16 strikeouts in June is just a rate of 18.4 percent, which is a far cry from the 29.9 percent rate he had across two levels in April and May and far below the 31.8 percent strikeout rate he showed last year after his promotion to Sugar Land. That was the kind of debut at the highest minor league level that had fans (and maybe even the team) penciling him in to a rotation spot at some point. He does it with velocity that’s nothing special, but he gets whiffs due to a flat approach angle and a lower arm slot. That’s exactly what Houston has turned into gold multiple times. Getting those whiffs was the whole point.

But lately, they haven’t been there while he’s found far more success. The strikeout rate would be fine for a back-end pitcher, which may ultimately be where he lands, but it’s a far step down from where he was before that made him so interesting. The lines were great, but the whiff column was pretty bare. 

You can argue that it’s still a feature, so let’s not go selling all the Pecko stock. The PCL is a launching pad league where hitters don’t make this much weak contact. He’s getting deeper into games because he’s not running up his pitch count. You can make a fairly strong argument that this is a pitcher maturing into efficiency, which isn’t a bad thing at all.

But the other side is that his ceiling has always been tethered to his fastball missing bats. He’s always been projected with a ceiling of a mid-rotation starter, with back-end guy being the most likely. When a fastball-driven arm stops getting whiffs against minor leaguers, that’s at least worth a bit of concern before he pitches in the big leagues, where every hitter is good enough to punish a mistake. Weak contact is great, but contact can become a hit. A swing-and-miss has never been one in the history of the game.

The timing makes it matter more, too. With the rotation starting to get healthier, Pecko isn’t really in line for a courtesy callup. He’ll have to take a job, and that’s a great spot to be organizationally. The version of him that misses bats and works deep is a tidy answer to a rotation with plenty of questions. The version that only does the second thing is probably a fifth starter, and those pitchers don’t get the benefit of the doubt for too long. 

For now, there’s nothing to worry about. He’s getting back to what he did last season when he was excellent in AAA. He’s coming off Thoracic Outlet Syndrome, so just having success is important. He’s pitching as well as he ever has and knocking on a door that’s been cracked open a few times this year. It would just be nice to see the whiffs come back before he’s needed again because that’s the thing that was supposed to make him a big leaguer. 

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