Astros land Tatsuya Imai and two new arms face uncertain futures

After a quieter-than-expected non-tender deadline, the Houston Astros' inaction led to a tight financial situation, making it difficult to see how the club could make significant maneuvers this winter. With a No. 2 starter being a pressing need, it seemed as if the club was going to be forced to roll the dice on upside plays and fliers, hoping that a cheap play could rise and exceed expectations.

At first, it seemed like that was the plan. Early on, the Astros agreed to terms with former first-round bust Nate Pearson. Next, Houston signed under-the-radar KBO star Ryan Weiss, hoping his stellar 2.87 ERA 2025 campaign could translate stateside.

Those two dart throws seemed to get the first shot to prove they could stick, with youngsters like Spencer Arrighetti and AJ Blubaugh fighting alongside them, hoping to break through.

Then Dana Brown shocked the world, coming out of nowhere to sign 27-year-old Japanese phenom Tatsuya Imai, throwing everything we expected for a loop.

The Astros big play for Tatsuya Imai creates some new rotation questions

If Imai lives up to his potential, Brown and the Astros will come out smelling like roses. The flamethrower is highly touted, but not without questions. His shiny 1.92 ERA and career-best 27.8 strikeout rate in 2025 are exciting, but before 2025, he regularly struggled with walks, and it is uncertain exactly how well his repertoire will translate to MLB competition.

Imai's addition makes for four locks in Houston's rotation, with Hunter Brown leading the way and Imai, prized trade acquisition Mike Burrows, and Cristian Javier following suit. That leaves the fifth starter spot up for grabs.

That could mean one or both of Pearson and Weiss could be forced to the bullpen. For Pearson, that might be the best-case scenario as the 29-year-old has made just six starts of his 123 big league appearances. Weiss has struggled at times with control issues, but looked like a devastating force at the end of the KBO season and in the playoffs once he started coming out of the bullpen.

On the flip side, those two right-handers moving to the bullpen could result in Lance McCullers Jr. getting regular run as the rotation's No. 5, and given his struggles last season while returning to the mound for the first time since 2022, that could get ugly.

The big X-factor here, though, is Imai and his contract. The deal is for three years, $54 million, but as long as he throws at least 100 innings, he'll make an additional $3 million in incentives, and the total value of his deal will rise to $63 million. On top of that, the deal comes with opt-outs after each season.

As of now, Imai counts as $18 million towards the luxury tax, with the $244 million tax threshold being something of a line in the sand coming down from owner Jim Crane. If Imai hits his escalator, that number will vault to $21 million against the tax.

Depending on where you look, the Astros are dangerously close to crossing into the tax. Spotrac pegs them at $234 million, giving just $10 million worth of breathing room; the vast majority must be saved for in-season maneuvers. FanGraphs Roster Resource pegs Houston with a $242 million payroll, and Cot's contracts splits the difference, estimating a $239 million expenditure.

Effectively, that means Houston is done adding this offseason, and now might look to clear some salary. Christian Walker being dealt would be ideal, but not likely. The probable scenario is moves around the fringes, with lower-cost players like Jesus Sanchez potentially being shipped out.

This means Brown is staking his job security on Imai. The Astros will be limited in what they can do to supplement at the trade deadline, so the iteration you see now will more or less be the squad that carries us through the season.

If Imai is a bust, Brown is likely dismissed, and the Astros will have another significant contract on the books for 2027 and likely 2028. If Imai excels, he is sure to opt out and then likely price himself out of Houston's budget next offseason.

Brown needed to do something, and for better or worse, this is it. As thrilling as nabbing Imai is, there are more ways that this could go wrong than go right.