Astros’ Jeremy Peña needs to fix this glaring problem in 2025 to reach his potential

Heading into last season, Houston Astros shortstop Jeremy Peña was a hot topic of conversation. While most agree that Peña is solid player, his offensive potential was in question after his power slumped in 2023. The issue was such a concern that Peña came into camp last year with a new swing; one that some thought could pay massive dividends.

Unfortunately, the end result last season was more of the same. After posting a mediocre 97 wRC+ in 2023 with 10 homers, Peña only notched a very modest improvement to a 100 wRC+ with 15 homers.

At this point, Peña's inconsistent power output is probably just who he is, which is fine if he continues to be an above-average defender. However, Peña's approach at the plate, especially last season, is a bigger problem that needs to be solved, or the Astros need to start thinking about different options in the long-term.

Jeremy Peña's approach at the plate is becoming a very significant problem for the Astros

The most glaring issue with Peña's approach at the plate is his walk rate. After bringing his ability to draw free passes up to a still-not-great 6.8% in 2023, his walk rate cratered again last season to a dreadful 3.8%. One would think that that would mean that strikeouts would be a massive problem, but Peña's issues are a bit more complicated than that.

For all his faults, Peña does make contact and his strikeout rate of 17.1% in 2024 is more than acceptable. However, the contact is not quality contact more often than not, and his chase rate (8th percentile) shows that he's basically swinging at anything that comes his way. That leads to a lot of weak ground balls and double plays, which is a problem the Astros have at multiple spots in their lineup.

Peña needn't be a 30 home run threat to be a useful shortstop for Houston, especially if his defense rebounds from a mediocre 2024 showing. If he can hit 15 or so home runs per season with a .270 batting average, that will be good enough.

However, Peña must get on base more often and his career .307 on-base percentage just isn't going to cut it. Even a modest increase would help the Astros' cause immensely and mitigate some of the feast-or-famine offensive performances. If Peña can't do that, Houston is going to have start wondering if a top prospect like Brice Matthews needs receive a chance instead.

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