Jeremy Peña's 2024 struggles magnify overlooked Astros’ offseason need

The impending free agency of Alex Bregman will take centerstage for the Houston Astros this offseason, with potential contract extensions for Kyle Tucker and Framber Valdez to follow closely behind. First base has long been a point of contention for most of the Astros fanbase, and the Houston faithful are hopeful that GM Dana Brown is able to secure a new first baseman heading into 2025.

But Astros fans (and perhaps the front office) are overlooking a critical flaw on Houston's roster. While Jeremy Peña may have shined as a rookie and was a major part of the Astros' run to the World Series in 2022, Houston may need to take a closer look at the shortstop position this offseason.

Astros need to consider replacing Jeremy Peña at shortstop heading into 2025

First and foremost, Peña will enter Year 1 of his arbitration window, so the 27-year-old will be due a raise in 2025. MLB Trade Rumors predicts that Peña will earn upwards of $4.4 million next season, which is nothing to sneeze at if Houston is looking to reallocate their funds in 2025.

But the money is the least of the concerns. Peña struggled in 2024. Whether you want to use Peña's 100 OPS+ or his 100 wRC+ is up to you, but by both metrics, the Astros shortstop was average at best. Throw in other advanced metrics like Peña's 3.8% walk rate, 36.9% chase rate, 5.4% barrel rate, and -2 outs above average, and you can see why it may be necessary for Houston to make a tough decision when it comes to the shortstop position this offseason.

Unfortunately, an internal promotion seems unlikely. Brice Matthews was highly thought of coming out of the University of Nebraska in 2023, but the former two-sport athlete projects better at third base than shortstop. Houston's farm system is not rife with young shortstop talent.

Free agency has little offer. With Houston all of a sudden becoming more budget-conscious, it's doubtful that Willy Adames or Ha-Seong Kim will fit in the Astros' payroll plans for 2025. Lesser known free agents like Paul DeJong and Jose Iglesias could be available, but offer little to no upgrade over Peña.

If the Astros can see past Peña's flaws, perhaps Houston heads into next season without making a change. Peña's speed is arguably his greatest attribute, but if he's unable to get on base with regularity in order to use it, his blazing fast wheels offer little value.

It might seem doubtful that Houston will look to part company with Peña this winter, but it doesn't mean the Astros should just sit on their hands. If there's an opportunity to upgrade the shortstop position during the offseason, Brown needs to be willing to take the risk.

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