Astros insider’s wild prediction seems hopelessly optimistic, but not totally wrong

The Houston Astros are in a curious spot ahead of Opening Day. They have enough respected veterans on their roster to have a relatively high floor, but that's part of the problem. This is a group that struggled to stay healthy throughout 2025, and ran out of gas during the final month of the regular season. The Astros certainly aren't the favorites to win the American League West as the start of the season approaches, but it may not be impossible.

MLB.com's Brian McTaggart is wrapping up his spring training coverage with some observations from camp, and his bold prediction for the season is that the Astros will win the division. The veteran reporter points to the run the Astros had at the top of the division during the early months of the 2025 season, add expected health, and an improved pitching staff as the reasons why Houston will prove to be back in 2026.

He's not entirely wrong. If Yordan Álvarez is healthy for the entire season, that could be an immediate answer to their inability to score runs at the end of the 2025 season. Ditto for Jeremy Peña, and he follows up on the MVP conversation he was in during the early months of last year.

Not to mention, Tatsuya Imai meeting the higher end of his MLB projections and Mike Burrows turning into a dude would stabilize the starting rotation.

The Astros can win the AL West, but let's not ignore the elephant in the room

Where McTaggart's prediction loses steam is that the Astros are already struggling to stay healthy. As Opening Day approaches, Peña, Josh Hader, and Bennett Sousa are all expected to begin the season on the IL. Even if their respective stays are short, it's a reminder that health simply can't be counted on as a reason for optimism.

There's also the matter of the Astros roster getting older. Jose Altuve struggled during the final month of the regular season, and for as much as fans wanted to point to his injury, he's looked awful during spring training. A reminder that the rule of thumb for position players often doesn't point to them getting better as they get older.

As for the pitching staff, sure, Imai and Burrows becoming success stories could make a difference. What that ignores, however, is that the bullpen outside of Hader and Bryan Abreu isn't that good. And Hader's availability is already in question.

If you squint, yes, you can barely see a path that would lead toward the Astros winning the division in 2026. The problem is that squinting often isn't sustainable for a 162-game season.