Astros insider points out curious trade deadline wrinkle Dana Brown may be banking on

The Houston Astros enter Memorial Day with a 23-31 record, an aging roster, and a litany of injuries. The window is closing, and the inevitable sell-off is coming, right? While embracing a rebuild would certainly make sense, there are circumstances that could lead the Astros to believe that their playoff hopes are still alive.

First, the AL West as a whole is incredibly weak. The Mariners have taken a step back as Cal Raleigh saw the biggest dip in OPS from 2025 to 2026 before landing on the IL. The Rangers have continued to erode since winning the 2023 World Series. The Athletics are currently in first place, but are just one game over .500. The Angels? Well, they're the Angels.

So Houston sits just 4.5 games back of first place for the division. The mediocrity extends beyond the AL West to the American League as a whole, leaving Houston just 3.5 back of the final wild card spot. Forget win-loss record for a minute and just focus on playoff positioning, and you can see this is the kind of positioning that could have a club buying instead of selling at the end of July.

The Astros' positioning in the playoff race could help save Dana Brown's job

Chandler Rome of The Athletic (subscription required) put together a few interesting notes regarding the Astros' potential to be buyers rather than sellers at the trade deadline.

First, he notes the last we've heard from Jim Crane regarding the status of Brown's (and Joe Espada's) job security. It came the last time Crane addressed the media, which was on January 5 to announce the Tatsuya Imai signing.

“We’ll go through this year like we always do, evaluate and make a decision at the end of the year,” Crane said at the time, making it sound as if each man had the entirety of the 2026 campaign to make their case as to why they should stay. Crane has never made an in-season move against a general manager, leading one to believe Brown still has some rope.

Furthermore, the injuries are something of an extenuating circumstance. Hunter Brown is nearing a return and could be something of a savior. Jeremy Peña returned to action last week, and the Astros are 4-2 since welcoming him back into the fold. Assuming no second injury wave arises, these IL returns will serve as something like pre-trade deadline acquisitions that could change Houston's fortunes.

Building on that, as Rome points out, the Astros were 10 games out of first in the division in 2024, but bought at the trade deadline and ended up winning the AL West crown with an 88-73 record. It would not be shocking if that was still on Crane's mind despite the doom and gloom narrative emanating from the outside.

Finally, the biggest boost to Brown's chances to avoid a July fire sale and save his job might actually be Crane. The Houston owner has previously stated that the championship window will never close as long as he owns the team, and has indicated to sources around the league that the team will not consider tearing it down this season.

So, it seems as if Brown will have every opportunity to engineer a turnaround, and if he does, he could curry a lot of favor with an owner who believes winning absolves all sins. The easy part is getting the opportunity. The hard part will be capitalizing on it with the Astros' barren farm system.

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