Astros glaring rotation need could turn Houston native into a dream offseason match

The Houston Astros enter the offseason with more needs than they've had in years past. Houston's outfield is unsettled, their infield is overcrowded, and the injured list has already been prepped for a handful of additions once spring training gets underway. But the most glaring weakness is the Astros' starting rotation.

Outside of Hunter Brown, Houston doesn't have much in the way of top-of-the-rotation starting pitching. The Astros are unlikely to retain Framber Valdez in free agency, meaning they'll have to find a way to not only replace him, but also backfill a rotation that would likely include the likes of Spencer Arrighetti, AJ Blubaugh, and Christian Javier.

While trading for a starter should be on the table, Houston's dilapidated farm system makes that route a little less appealing and a lot more difficult to find a willing trade partner. Free agency, however, could bring a frontline starter to Space City, and Houston native Merrill Kelly should be at the top of the Astros' wishlist.

Astros glaring rotation need could force them to turn to Houston native Merrill Kelly

Kelly spent the past few seasons out in the desert pitching for the Arizona Diamondbacks, but after declaring themselves out of the postseason race last July, the D-backs decided to sell off a number of their assets. Kelly was among the players dealt at last year's trade deadline, and he wound up back in the Lone Star State, but with the Astros' arch nemesis, the Texas Rangers.

Kelly had a down-year in 2025, but still posted a respectable 3.52 ERA. After missing time due to injury in 2024, Kelly was back to his durable self in 2025 and started 32 games. He's eclipsed 26 starts in four of the past five seasons all the while posting a 3.66 ERA and averaging nearly 160 innings pitched. Given the number of injuries Houston's starting rotation dealt with last season, adding a dependable arm like Kelly's feels like a no-brainer.

Kelly's age won't be working in his favor. At 37 years old, it's doubtful many teams will offer the right-hander any more than a two-year deal. MLB Trade Rumors seems to think that Merrill can land a two-year, $36 million deal this offseason. An $18 million AAV for a starter with Kelly's résumé could fit rather nicely into Houston's payroll.

Once the non-tender deadline is in the rearview mirror, teams will be more apt to begin exploring the free agent market. Brining Kelly back to his hometown sure feels like a match made in heaven, doesn't it?