Astros’ Framber Valdez decision last offseason is haunting them now in hindsight

When the Houston Astros traded Kyle Tucker last offseason, it felt like a half-measure. Beyond the fact that the Astros were trading the anchor of their starting lineup, it seemed that the team was ready to reset its roster with a younger core.

On the surface, it made sense; their core was getting older, and year from free agency, Tucker was a clear trade chip, considering the Astros likely weren't going to be his top bidder. The issue with the approach is that the Astros should have also traded Framber Valdez last winter.

In the immediate aftermath of the Tucker trade, there was speculation that Valdez was on the trade block. Instead, the Astros decided to hold onto the free-agent-to-be with the belief that they could salvage one last playoff run with the 31-year-old at the top of their rotation.

The 2025 season proved just how wrong that decision was. Not only did the Astros not make the playoffs, but there are some serious questions facing this team moving forward. They have very little room to operate financially this season, and have horribly aged contracts tying down their books in the years ahead. The Astros can't even look to their farm system as a silver lining, as they lack blue-chip prospects and don't have the depth to make waves in the trade market this offseason.

The Astros' decision to not trade Framber Valdez last offseason has aged horribly

Considering the asking prices for controllable starting pitchers at the MLB trade deadline last season, the Astros could have received a haul for Valdez had they moved him last winter. We're not just talking about talent who would have been ready to contribute at the Major League level, but a prospect or two that would have revived their farm system.

Now, as it stands, the only thing the Astros are set to gain from Valdez's departure is draft pick compensation, considering they extended a qualifying offer to the veteran pitcher earlier this week.

As for replacing Valdez, it doesn't appear that the Astros have much of a plan. They seem to be rolling with the idea that quantity will be better than quality, and that mindset likely will have them sitting out of the bidding for top free agents this offseason.

With Dana Brown and Joe Espada facing lame-duck statuses, it feels like the Astros dragged their feet on resetting and are now paying the price with a terrible outlook moving forward.