Astros’ Framber Valdez choice was just vindicated after aging starter sets the market

Most of the attention throughout baseball is focused on the MLB trade deadline, and understandably so. The Houston Astros, however, will soon have to grapple with the harsh reality that Framber Valdez is likely to leave after the 2025 season. There's been no progress — at least publicly — toward an extension, and considering that Valdez's name came up in trade talks this past offseason, the odds of a deal are next to zero.

Houston would certainly love to keep their ace. Valdez himself would probably stay if the Astros' offer was right, but it just doesn't appear as if there's been much progress, or even effort, toward a reunion.

If the chances were already grim, those odds just got a lot worse after an aging — but productive — starter was just rewarded with a pretty lucrative extension from the Kanas City Royals. Seth Lugo reportedly agreed to a two-year, $46 million contract to remain in KC.

A Framber Valdez contract extension with the Astros seems unlikely after Seth Lugo's deal with the Royals

At first glance, Valdez and Lugo don't appear to be equal comps. Lugo is a right-hander while Valdez is a lefty, and the Royals' starter is five years Valdez's senior at 36 years old. Valdez has been one of the best pitchers in baseball since 2020, while Lugo has experienced a resurgence late in his career after converting from a reliever back into a starter.

That, however, is almost worse news. If Lugo can command a two-year deal with a vesting option for a third valued at $23 million a year, imagine what Valdez is going to be worth on the open market and likely seeking a five-year deal or more. Valdez is younger and better than Lugo. Max Fried's contract with the New York Yankees (8 years, $218 million), if not a bit higher, is likely the starting point for Valdez's next deal.

Houston has had a front row seat to the volatility of pitching this season given the large number injuries the team's rotation has sustained. Given that knowledge, committing a nine figure deal to any pitcher, even one as good as Valdez, feels like a tough sell. Had the Astros pulled the trigger sooner, he might've been considerably cheaper.

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