Astros’ first round pick may fit their competitive timeline perfectly

The Houston Astros played the long game with their first-round selection in the 2025 MLB Draft, selecting high school third baseman Xavier Neyens. There was some surprise with the selection, given that there was an expectation that the Astros could be targeting a college bat. However, when looking at where things stand with the Astros at the Major League level, it was a worthwhile gamble for the Astros to go the high school route.

Cam Smith's meteoric rise to the Major League level this season after being drafted by the Cubs in the first round last season is an example of the accelerated timeline first-round college bats have upon being drafted. While Smith's case is the extreme example, the expectation remains that they will be knocking on the door of the majors within two years of being drafted.

That often isn't the case for high school bats. The primary reason is the large jump between facing pitchers at the high school level compared to facing pitchers at the professional level. Add in the fact that a high school prospect still has some physical development to complete, and the timeline is closer to 3-4 years.

For that reason, there are no flaws with the strategy the Astros had in taking Neyens.

Astros just landed the kind of draft pick contenders dream about

Even with the development that is ahead for Neyens, most evaluators believe he can stick at third base once he reaches the Major League level. Neyens, given his stature, has drawn some comparisons to Braves' third baseman Austin Riley.

With Isaac Paredes in the midst of an All-Star season during his first year in Houston, it's safe to say the Astros won't have a need at third base until 2028--when Paredes becomes a free agent. For an Astros team that has the blueprint of not paying impending free agents, Neyens' arrival could align perfectly with Paredes being ready to leave via free agency. It's the type of contingency plan that has kept the Astros' dynasty alive for the past decade.

It's that type of contingency plan that has allowed the Astros to survive the departures of Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman, and Carlos Correa, among others, in recent seasons.

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