Astros face Yainer Diaz dilemma: Is there really a better catcher available in free agency?

There is an old saying that the grass is always greener on the other side of the fence. This is ultimately true when looking at player performance. Unless your name is Yordan Alvarez, there is always someone out there better, so there is always a desire to find that something better. In the case of catcher, there are definite reasons to want to upgrade from Yainer Diaz, but we have to ask the reasonable question of whether that upgrade is out there.

Today, we are looking at the reasonable free agent options for a starting catcher. That would involve likely dealing Diaz and using money available to sign his replacement. So, there are a few numbers we track to answer that question. Honestly, I like numbers because numbers keep me honest. If you were to ask the emotional fan in me then I would admit that I hate watching Diaz hit. He swings at everything and I prefer my hitters to be selective. However, there is a difference between style and actual performance. Diaz has been a primary catcher for four seasons now, so we are looking at the free agents over the same time and calculating wins per 120 games for fangraphs.com.

So, there is no appreciable difference between Diaz and two of the three major free agents. So, while we might claim that they look better while doing it, the actual performance says they are more or less the same. Obviously, every player gets to their value differently, so we can break down their hitting and fielding to see if any of them are better at one or the other.

This would explain my aversion in numerical form. Diaz has the highest chase rate on the Astros and one of the highest in all of baseball. His walk rate is also one of the lowest in baseball and the lowest on the Astros. However, when you look at the career numbers on the other side of the table then you can see he is right there with Jeffers. So, it becomes a point of how one wants to get their value.

This is where numbers become part art and part science. One can hardly prove the synergy that comes from having a group of selective hitters in a lineup. You add pitches to the starting pitcher's pitch count. You get an occasional extra base runner with that one or two extra walks a game. However, one could easily look at the overall results and see no noticeable change. So, this might fall under preferences more than hard-nosed facts and figures.

Then, you get the defensive considerations. Last time we looked at defensive runs saved and fielding run value, so we will look at that again. This time though we will distill each player's numbers to come on a per 1000 inning basis since that tends to be fairly close to a full season's worth of fielding numbers.

Diaz has been criticized for his defense, but is his defense really that much worse than the rest of the competitors?

Kelly is legitimately a better defensive catcher and if you are a believer in more recent results then his last two seasons have been considerably better offensively as well. Of course, he is also older and so he would be a year to year option at this point. All that being said, as a practical application, getting a Jeffers or Stephenson would be more of the same. It would be a better than average hitter who also struggles behind the dish in comparison with his peers.

I am always a firm believer that every player has a price point where it makes sense to bring them in. Even a replacement level player could be a bargain at major league minimum. Jeffers feels like a guy angling for a payday, but maybe someone like Stephenson slides underneath the radar. It is impossible to know exactly how the market will play out. What we know is that from a pure value standpoint, Diaz has been just as good as the rest of them. So the question is how much will he continue to be worth and how much will he demand?

Next time we will take a look at some potential trade targets. The trade market is always difficult to predict, but there are bound to be some guys available at the right price. Of course, this could be in an effort to pair someone with Diaz to replace Christian Vazquez or to replace Diaz outright. So far, the options are not appetizing, but maybe we can find a trade partner for the Astros.

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