Should the Houston Astros trade Yainer Diaz? The catcher decision isn’t that simple

One of the things that casual fans will never understand is how difficult every decision is for a front office. This is particularly true for a front office that has to start running as soon as they hit the ground. This is no more true than at the catcher position. There are always layers to these things and Yainer Diaz is the perfect example of that axiom. We could also look at Christian Vazquez, but he is likely one and done, so we can simply look at his performance as a part of this puzzle.

The easiest and most simple way to look at the situation is to look at Diaz's performance over the last four seasons. He has been a consistent two to three win player throughout that time. He would have likely gotten to three wins again this season if not for missing six weeks due to injury. Three win players don't grow on trees, so the easiest and most elegant solution is to either bring him back as an arbitration tender or on an extension. However, general managers are paid to look deeper and we will do that too. Let's start with the offensive numbers for both catchers.

First, we need to clean up on aisle six. What do these numbers mean exactly? wOBA is a number Fangraphs uses to measure both on base and slugging elements together. It mimics on base percentage, so a league average wOBA usually hovers around .320 depending on the season. That obviously is also dependent on the ballpark. Daikin Park tends to be fairly neutral, so Diaz was above average compared to the league and likely solid compared to most catchers.

Vazquez was awful. That can seen when we look at the wRC+ which is a measure of the number of runs a player creates compared to the league average. 100 is average. Vazquez was just bad where Diaz looks really good when you consider that he's a catcher. Finally, the xwOBA is the expected numbers given the quality of the player's contact. So, both players overachieved last season. That doesn't particularly change our analysis of 2026, but it needs to be filed away when we consider what to do in the future.

This is usually where someone pipes up and asks about the defense behind the dish. Yes, we absolutely need to look at that and there are two numbers we can reference. We can look at defensive runs saved and fielding run value. Both encompass most of what a catcher does defensively.

So, if we average these two together then Vazquez was a win better than Diaz defensively. Embedded in the FRV are the framing runs which have always been negative for Diaz. That is what makes this decision that much more complicated. If you remove the framing runs then suddenly Diaz comes a lot closer to neutral defensively. Will the ABS system become a permanent fixture in a year or two? How does that impact long-term decision making? These are all things the next general manager has to consider.

The last number is what I will call the "Maldonado line". In short, as good as defensive metrics are, it cannot account for everything.

Sources track catcher ERA, but with catchers having particular pitchers they catch, it is not an apples to apples comparison. So, while I could go back and track it for Diaz and Vazquez last season (and I did at one point), the results would not necessarily be meaningful.

However, one of the things that the Astros pointed out is that the team performed better when Maldonado was catching (thus the Maldonado line). This was true up until his last season in 2023 when that trend stopped. While it is not perfect, baseball-reference does track the record of the team in games that the catcher caught. Obviously, there are some where one or the other came in late and those counted as well, but I think you get the general idea.

Keep in mind we have some considerable overlap here, so the Astros clearly did not win 91 games. However, this demonstrates an undeniable fact. The Astros performed better when Vazquez started games behind the dish. Some of that is likely that pitchers were more comfortable pitching to him. This is an inexact science and that became less of a factor as the season went on, but it is something we cannot afford to ignore.

So, given all of these factors what is a general manager to do? I'm certainly just a guy behind a keyboard, but you have to consider moving Diaz and doing something behind the dish. It would be simple to say play him at first base or designated hitter, but we will see the problems with those suggestions when we get to those spots. They are earmarked with other players. Plus, you have to look at the xwOBA and ask yourself if a below average league hitter (which is what those numbers predict) is worth wasting a premium offensive spot in the order on.

The Dana Brown way would be to rush Jason Schiavone to the big leagues and hope he is ready. A new general manager likely doesn't remove quality developmental time from him or Walker Janek. So, that leaves an answer outside the organization. Obviously, if Diaz is going to be traded then something has to come back. Theoretically a younger catcher or older veteran catcher could be that piece, but it also could come in another trade involving another player.

Ryan Jeffers of the Twins is the headliner in the free agency market. That would be swinging for the fences and would likely monopolize your offseason budget. There are more affordable options like Carson Kelly and potentially Tyler Stephenson. Then, you have a group of backup catcher types like James McCann, Jonah Heim, Austin Hedges, and former Astro Jake Rogers. None of those are appetizing options per se, but even if you bring Diaz back you will need someone like them to be the second catcher for a year.

Jeffers is also probably off the table because he would require a multi-year contract and you want to save room for Schiavone and Janek in 2028. So, whatever they do is likely to be a temporary solution. Backup catcher might not be a sexy addition, but Vazquez proved to be valuable at certain spots in the season and pitchers obviously enjoyed pitching to him. So, finding a replacement for him needs to be a priority at some point. It's a lot of moving parts and the longer the Astros take to hire their new guy the more difficult those decisions will be.

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