Astros’ dream free-agent plan crumbles once fans face the harsh 2026 payroll reality

Dylan Cease's seven-year, $210 million deal with the Toronto Blue Jays last week confirmed that the cost of free-agent pitching remains at a premium, if not, getting even higher. It's why it was understood throughout the 2025 season that the Houston Astros weren't going to be re-signing Framber Valdez. Cease's contract is only more confirmation of that speculation, and likely a greater indicator of what not to expect from Houston this offseason.

The Astros entered the offseason with less than $20 million before reaching the first level of the luxury tax, and remaining under that mark appears to have been what Jim Crane has directed Dana Brown and Co. to adhere to.

Look no further than the Astros trading Mauricio Dubon in a cost-cutting move to set the theme for the winter. Short of a dramatic change in tune, don't expect the Astros to make any big-ticket expenditures in free agency. Along those lines, MLB.com's Mark Feinsand's "perfect" free-agent fit for the Astros feels like it isn't based in reality.

Ranger Suarez would look great in the Astros' rotation, but the problem of how to pay him remains the biggest hurdle

Feinsand tabs Suarez as the fit for the Astros, and generally speaking, he's not wrong. Not turning 31 until the end of the 2026 season and sitting with a career ERA of 3.38 while striking out over 22% of the hitters he faced, Suarez, above all else, gets the most out of his stuff. Nearly the same age as Cease and coming off a more productive season, Suarez could very well land a deal in the neighborhood of $200 million.

Sure, Cease's contract had deferrals that put the present-day value of his deal closer to $180 million, and even if that is the ask of the former Philadelphia Phillies' starting pitcher, the Astros can't afford it. As much as Suarez makes sense for the Astros, short of his market bottoming out, it's hard to map out a path to his signing.

That doesn't mean that the Astros won't address Valdez's likely departure. It just means that they may have to be forced into a Zac Gallen type, seeking a short-term deal with the goal of his replenishing value. Otherwise, living in the trade market could be the primary route for the Astros to upgrade their roster this offseason.