Astros’ decision to stay the course could backfire in the worst possible way

The Houston Astros made the decision to stick with GM Dana Brown and manager Joe Espada. According to MLB.com's Brian McTaggart, both Brown and Espada will return to their roles in 2026.

This isn't necessarily a surprising verdict on the part of Jim Crane and the Astros ownership. It is, however, indicative of the direction Houston will take heading into next season. Much like fans have seen over the past decade, the Astros are planning to go all-in with their sights set on adding another World Series championship to the trophy case.

Though fans undoubtedly love Crane's commitment to winning — and winning at the highest level — this plan could backfire in the worst possible way. The Astros will already be walking a fine line heading into next season, both in terms of salary obligations and an aging roster. Nevertheless, Houston's ownership has now hitched its wagon to a win-at-all-cost mindset — so long as certain financial restrictions are upheld — and that has the potential to severely handcuff the franchise if they're unsuccessful next season.

Astros decision to keep Dana Brown and Joe Espada is a win-now approach that could backfire

The Astros took an all-in approach at this year's trade deadline when they made moves to acquire Carlos Correa, Jesús Sanchez, and Ramon Urias. While some will argue that Houston should've also landed Dylan Cease in order to bolster the rotation, taking on Correa's contract — even with the Minnesota Twins paying down $33 million — was a big swing on the part of Brown and the Astros front office. That's another $21 million the Astros are paying each year through 2028.

Houston may be forced to double down on a similar stratgey this offseason, and it may cost them something they have very little of; prospect capital. The Astros have raided their farm system over the past decade, and it shows. Houston's pipeline is constantly ranked among the worst in Major League Baseball. According to MLB Pipeline, only the San Diego Padres have a worse farm system.

Furthermore, it's not as if Houston has an up-and-coming roster teeming with young talent. Most of the Astros top performers — Correa, Jose Altuve, Josh Hader, and Christian Walker — are 30 years old, or older.

While there's optimism that Jacob Melton, Zach Cole, Brice Matthews, and Cam Smith can be solid contributors in 2026, that's built around theory rather than actual production. Astros fans saw how quickly the league adjusted to Smith this past season, rendering him rather ineffective down the stretch.

Then the there's the Astros payroll, which is always a point of contention. Thankfully Houston will be shedding the ridiculous contracts of Jose Abreu and Rafael Montero next season, and Framber Valdez's $18 million will be coming off the books as well. But Houston already has $137 million committed to next season, and that doesn't include Correa's salary.

Walker, Christian Javier, and Lance McCullers Jr. — three players who combined for 1.8 fWAR in 2025 — account for almost $60 million of the payroll next season. Throw in the $66 million Houston is estimated to spend on arbitration eligible players this offseason, and the Astros payroll (without any offseason additions) is already sitting at $200 million and without their No. 2 starter from a team that missed the playoffs in 2025.

All of this to say, Brown and Co. have a tall task ahead this winter. Houston can certainly retool the current roster, pull off some savvy trades, plug some holes with some low-cost free agent signings, and hope for better health in 2026. But hope is not a strategy, and the Astros have their work cut out for them heading into the offseason.

If Brown and Espada are able to put together a competent roster and return to the mountain top in 2026, Crane's decision to bring them back will be hailed as a brilliant commitment to a winning culture. If it fails to produce results, however, both men will likely be shown the door and the Astros will have an absolute mess on their hands heading into 2027.