Astros collapse may be traced to one stunning factor nobody predicted

The Houston Astros are in trouble as Joe Espada's team is battling it out with the Seattle Mariners for AL West supremacy with two weeks left to go in the 2025 season. While most MLB experts and pundits expected the Mariners to make a run — especially after picking up some key pieces at the MLB trade deadline — few expected the Texas Rangers to be in the mix as well.

Houston now faces the grim reality that both Seattle and Texas could usurp them heading into the final weeks of the 2025 season, and even the tiebreaker scenarios don't really favor the Astros.

With the Astros now staring down the very real possibility that they could miss the playoffs for the first time in nine seasons, fans are (rightly) asking what happened. Quite frankly, Houston's offense has fallen apart over the past several weeks, and there may not be enough time to right the ship.

The Mariners (and Rangers) are now a threat to the Astros, and the lineup is to blame

Heading into the second half of the 2025 season, the Astros held a comfortable four-game lead over the Mariners. The Rangers were a distant third, sitting in the middle of the pack with a .500 record after the All-Star break.

Things got a bit dicey about a month ago after Seattle rattled off eight straight wins to tie Houston with a record of 67-53. Thankfully, the M's bats cooled off, and the Astros entered the month of September with a three-game cushion and a 90.5% chance to make the playoffs. But all of a sudden, the script has flipped, and Seattle's playoff odds have increased to 92% while Houston's chances of making it to October have dipped to 76.8%.

Before the All-Star break, the Astros ranked 9th in all of Major League Baseball with a .734 OPS. After the All-Star break, however, Houston is near the bottom with a .684 OPS. Only the Pittsburgh Pirates, Cleveland Guardians, and St. Louis Cardinals have been worse in the second half.

The list of offenders is a long one, but none has been more prominent than Jose Altuve. While fans have been frustrated with Altuve's recent slump during the month of September, his OPS dropped from .801 pre-All-Star break to .689 post-All-Star break.

Obviously, fans know that injuries have played a role, but with Yordan Alvarez back in the lineup and Carlos Correa back in Houston, the fanbase doesn't want to hear excuses. GM Dana Brown made enough additions at the deadline to bolster the lineup, and if anything was supposed to slow this team, it was going to be the pitching.

Unfortunately, the lack of offense is the biggest problem for Houston at the moment, and if manager Joe Espada can't figure out how to get his players back on track, they may be able to get an early start on the offseason for the first time in nearly a decade.

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