Astros’ bleak 2026 payroll outlook just got one tiny bit of hope

A consistent sore spot for the Houston Astros has been how badly they've been restricted by bloated contracts in recent years. The club has been insistent, though not always successful, at staying under the luxury tax line. That motivation, combined with some ill-fated contracts, forced them to trade Kyle Tucker last offseason.

Despite scrounging together the change needed to land Tatsuya Imai, Houston's poor choices continue to haunt the club as it faces a tough financial reality and a need to shave payroll following some disadvantageous arbitration developments.

The club's outlook is no better in 2027, but after that, we'll begin to see some light at the end of the tunnel. Bleacher Report's worst contract projections for 2028 featured no Astros' deals, making it seem like there can be breathing room again for the first time in a long while. That doesn't mean Houston is completely out of the woods yet, however.

The Astros' payroll might start opening up a little by 2028, but there are still some issues

Part of why the Astros are where they are is poor circumstances. Part of the reason why things are the way they are is bad choices. Both things are equally true.

Houston extended (at the time) promising young arms like Lance McCullers Jr. and Cristian Javier, just to see those deals quickly go belly-up thanks to Tommy John surgery, and in the case of McCullers, a mountain of setbacks on the road back. McCullers comes off the books after this season. Javier will be a free agent after 2027. Combined, that will liberate $30 million over the next two offseasons.

They've also been "forced" into making some deals that they knew wouldn't age well, like the extension they gave Jose Altuve. Everyone knew the writing was on the wall and he'd begin entering his decline phase, but how can you not retain the face of the most successful period in franchise history? Altuve's contract doesn't expire until after the 2029 season, so that won't provide any relief in 2028.

Others have been more self-inflicted. Christian Walker immediately became an albatross and is seemingly untradeable just one year in. Mercifully, his $20 million salary comes off the books after 2027. Carlos Correa's deal, which Dana Brown got Minnesota to cover part of but still willingly took on, is a complicated mess that can run through 2032 thanks to a series of vesting options.

Putting 2028 back into focus, the fortunate thing is that Houston will only have a handful of significant contracts weighing down the payroll. The aforementioned deals for Altuve and Correa, plus Yordan Alvarez, Josh Hader, and Tatsuya Imai (if he doesn't opt out), are the only significant commitments.

The bad news is they'll have a lot of holes to fill and balls to juggle. Hunter Brown will be entering his final year of arbitration in 2028. Jeremy Peña will be hitting free agency, and if he keeps his 2025 performance up, will become very expensive.

If Houston extends its core stars like Brown and Peña, it could easily find itself with its back against the wall yet again. If the Astros don't come to terms with those players, they'll have to spend a pretty penny to replace them.

A third option exists, which would be a full teardown and a rebuild, but that will be tricky as well, with Altuve, Correa, and Hader being close to immovable by that point.

By 2028, the Astros will be free of some of their mistakes, and they won't have any $30-plus million mega-deals on the books, but there will still be significant expenditures upwards of $20 million per year for players well into the back-nine of their careers. That will leave the club at an interesting crossroads, and they'll need to pick a path in order to truly break the cycle.