Astros' biggest offseason regret is already setting the stage for their downfall

Aside from Hunter Brown, the Houston Astros went into the 2026 season with two kinds of starting pitchers. The first cohort was experienced, but oft-injured and unreliable, with Lance McCullers Jr. and Cristian Javier leading the pack. The second was a group that was intriguing, but unproven, with Tatsuya Imai and Mike Burrows serving as the prime examples.

There was a chance that everything would work out, but it was slim. The elephant in the room was the 190 innings of quality pitching that were vacated by Framber Valdez's departure.

As the 2026 season began, the worst-case scenario has been all we've seen. Hunter Brown went down with a Grade 2 right shoulder strain, and now Javier has joined him on the IL with the exact same injury. Meanwhile, Burrows has a 5.62 ERA, Imai put together two shaky starts before being absolutely dominated by the Mariners in his third outing before heading back to Houston for a closer look by doctors. Shockingly, Lance McCullers Jr. has been their most reliable arm as the back of the rotation is in tatters.

In total, the starting rotation ranks 29th in the league with a 5.55 ERA following Imai's blowup, and the bullpen has been even worse, ranking dead-last with a 7.08 ERA while tossing the fourth-most innings in MLB thanks to the starters' ineptitude.

Astros' financial restraints set them up for a starting rotation gamble that could cost them everything

The rotation behind Brown and Valdez a year ago was also shaky at best, with the other starters aside from those two stalwarts posting a 4.69 ERA. This meant that beyond just needing to replace Valdez, but also adding stability to the three-through-five spots in the rotation.

There was an allure of adding a young arm with a high upside, such as Burrows, to infuse some youth into an aging roster. There's also some logic behind hoping for a bounce back from one of the injured veterans, with Javier looking like a better bet than McCullers Jr. to succeed when considering the group at the outset of the offseason.

But even with that, what was really needed was a qualified No. 2 starter and a reliable mid-rotation veteran. Houston didn't do that. Instead, they rolled the dice on reclamation projects like Nate Pearson and Ryan Weiss, and then spent a large chunk of money on a complete unknown, albeit one with a high ceiling, in Imai.

The reality was that with Jim Crane refusing to exceed the luxury tax, they were never going to be able to afford a front-of-the-rotation starter and a competent veteran innings eater while staying beneath the tax. They essentially could have picked one or the other, but not both.

However, by gambling so much money on Imai, they effectively ensured they'd get neither. Now, they're paying the price.

The Astros' offense has been on an absolute tear to start the year, but none of it matters as their pitching bleeds runs. When the inevitable slump comes, and some of these hot bats hit the skids, we're going to see some very ugly results unless the pitching gets figured out.

It's too early to write off guys like Burrows and Imai entirely, but the warning signs are present. Moreover, the margin for error the Astros have this season is slim (though the Mariners' cold start helps), bringing about the possibility that even if these young starters get their acts together, it will be too little, too late.