Astros add Tatsuya Imai but financial pressure hints at uncomfortable decision ahead

The Houston Astros surprised the baseball world on New Year's Day after signing Japanese pitching sensation Tatsuya Imai to a three-year, $63 million contract. The Astros had been in search of a frontline starter throughout the offseason, and adding Imai certainly fills that need and should provide Houston with a compliment to their ace, Hunter Brown.

Additionally, the Astros were able to keep their expected payroll for 2026 under the dreaded Competitive Balance Tax threshold. Astros fans know all too well that owner Jim Crane does not want to go beyond the luxury tax, and Imai's deal has Houston sitting approximately $5 million under the CBT threshold according to Cot's Baseball Contracts.

The problem, however, is that while the Astros rotation is in good order, there are other areas of the roster that now need to be addressed. Houston has been adamant about adding a backup catcher this offseason, and if they have their sights set on a reunion with Victor Caratini, such a deal will almost certainly put them over the CBT threshold. As such, GM Dana Brown will need to do some roster trimming before Opening Day.

Astros have no choice but to trade Isaac Paredes after Tatsuya Imai's deal brings them close to the CBT threshold

The Astros have been linked to a number a trades throughout the offseason. Jake Meyers' name was floated about earlier this winter, but after trading away Jacob Melton, it looks as though the centerfielder will be staying put. Houston would love to shed Christian Walker and his $40 million in salary for the next two seasons, but to date, the Astros haven't had any takers.

The most effective way for the Astros to move comfortably below the luxury tax is to part with third baseman Isaac Paredes. He's expected to take home north of $10 million in arbitration next season, and while his swing is tailor made for Daikin Park, Houston has an abundance of corner infielders under contract for 2026.

The Astros would have to eat a good chunk of Walker's salary in order to move him, and even that might not be enough to facilitate a trade. The team's reunion with third baseman Carlos Correa last summer, while a fun story at the time, may have handcuffed the front office moving forward.

Trading Paredes would allow Houston to recoup some prospects and also keep their payroll well below the CBT threshold. Such a trade will undoubtedly hurt the team's offensive production next season, it may be the only way to make this roster work.