Astros absolutely need to target this former Cy Young winner to stabilize rotation

Despite what the news cycle is telling you, the Houston Astros' offseason is more than just whether or not Alex Bregman is coming back. Not only do the Astros need an upgrade at first base and to cover for some free agency losses in the bullpen, but stabilizing their rotation should absolutely be on their radar.

While the Astros have the pure numbers to field a rotation in 2025, the quality of that depth is pretty sketchy. They have multiple arms like Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. that they are hoping will bounce back well from long-term injuries, as well as young arms like Hunter Brown and Spencer Arrighetti that have had volatile starts to their careers.

With the loss of Yusei Kikuchi to the Angels, adding a veteran rotation arm would make a ton of sense -- even one that isn't theoretically available on Opening Day. After all, the 2024 Astros proved you can win the AL West after punting April anyhow (half-kidding).

The problem, as is often the case, is that Houston doesn't have unlimited funds at their disposal this offseason, especially while they are still negotiating with Bregman. If they are going to bring in an arm, it will likely have to be a buy-low option on a short-term deal. One such option does exist on the free agent market for the Astros in Shane Bieber, although he certainly comes with some risk.

The Astros should consider signing Shane Bieber despite his injury concerns

Just a couple of years ago, Bieber was widely considered to be one of the best pitchers in baseball and a top candidate for a massive free agent deal. He won the AL Cy Young in 2020, and from 2019-2022, he posted a 2.91 ERA with 713 strikeouts in 588.1 innings of work. By almost any measure, he was an absolute stud.

After his stuff backed up a bit in 2023, the biggest question mark for Bieber arrived this past season, as he required Tommy John surgery in April after making just a pair of starts. Even under the most optimistic of return timelines, Bieber won't be ready by Opening Day, with a summer 2025 return being the most likely outcome. Obviously Bieber's availability is going to have to be priced into any deal, and odds are that he will need to accept a one- to two-year deal in some form this offseason, given his injury status.

For the Astros specifically, Bieber's status wouldn't be too much of a deterrent. They have multiple arms returning in 2025, even with the losses of Kikuchi and probably Justin Verlander. Houston will be able to cover innings in the first half, but signing Bieber would allow him to slot in to replace anyone that regresses or gets hurt (which happens to every single team each season). Bieber can rebuild his value while Houston could get a high-upside bargain without needing to take a long-term risk.

While a lot of teams would love to take a chance on the Bieber lottery ticket, few teams can match the Astros' current postseason prospects and organizational ability to improve pitchers. At this stage of Bieber's career, that could be a key advantage in Houston's favor.

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