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On Tuesday, Nov. 19, Houston Astros fans are likely to be focused on Alex Bregman, as that is the deadline for when he must accept or (overwhelmingly more likely) reject the qualifying offer. While that decision is all but set in stone, Houston must also decide by that date which prospects they want to add to their 40-man roster to protect from the Rule 5 Draft.
The Rule 5 Draft is among the quirkiest events of the offseason, and can be difficult to parse. Essentially, it is a draft at the Winter Meetings designed to prevent teams from hoarding prospects indefinitely, but the exact details of how it works and what it could mean for the Astros are a good bit more complicated than that.
How the MLB Rule 5 Draft works and when it happens
The Rule 5 Draft seems relatively straight-forward at first. Any teams that have open 40-man roster spots can select eligible minor-league players from any other team and immediately add them to their 40-man roster. This year, the Rule 5 draft will take place on Dec. 11, 2024 at the Winter Meetings.
Where things get tricky is how eligibility is determined, and what happens after a player is drafted. The short version of the eligibility explanation is that among minor leaguers who aren't on a 40-man roster by Nov. 19, 2024, those who were 18 or younger when they signed and have been signed for at least five years OR signed for four years but signed at 19 years old or higher are eligible to be picked. The draft itself is the same as the regular draft order, but teams do not have to make picks if they do not want to, and the draft ends when every team passes on making a pick.
Once a player is picked in the Rule 5 and $100,000 is given to their old team, that player must remain on his new team's active 26-man roster for the entire season (excepting IL stints, obviously). If he is removed before that, he must be offered back to his original club for $50,000. If his original team declines the offer, said player can remain with his new club.
Astros prospects who are eligible for the Rule 5 Draft
Below you will find the (hopefully) exhaustive list of Astros prospects that are eligible for the 2024 Rule 5 Draft, according to FanGraphs' Roster Resource. There is a chance that FanGraphs missed guys on their list or incorrectly declared guys eligible, but they generally get really close. Prospects of note are in bold to help make sense of the wall of names.
- C/1B Luke Berryhill
- C Miguel Palma
- C/1B Fernando Caldera
- C/1B/LF Luis Encarnacion
- UTIL Jesus Bastidas
- UTIL Pascanel Ferreras
- UTIL Narbe Cruz
- SS/3B Cristian Gonzalez
- OF Quincy Hamilton
- OF Colin Barber
- OF Logan Cerny
- OF Zach Daniels
- SP Miguel Ullola
- SP Colton Gordon
- SP Misael Tamarez
- SP Aaron Brown
- SP Rhett Kouba
- SP Jayden Murray
- SP Luis Angel Rodriguez
- SP Nic Swanson
- SP Edinson Batista
- SP Alimber Santa
- SP Alex Santos II
- SP Manuel Urias
- RP Cesar Gomez
- RP Ray Gaither
- RP Cole McDonald
- RP Railin Perez
- RP Brody Rodning
- RP Amilcar Chirinos
- RP Abel Mercedes
At this moment, the Astros have a couple open spots on their 40-man roster to make additions from this list of eligible prospects, but they might need to make some more room if they want to add more than a few guys.
One thing to consider is that because teams must keep Rule 5 selections on their 40-man roster all season long to keep them, so the vast majority of picks are spent on guys who could feasibly help out in the big leagues that season. That means prospects from the upper levels of the minors are the most likely to be picked, especially pitchers. They're easier to hide and carry.
The Astros have a few guys that fit the mold of potential Rule 5 picks. Alex Santos is dominating down in the Arizona Fall League right now after a rough few seasons. Miguel Ullola only posted a 4.28 ERA in 2024, but has a great fastball and is easily the most highly regarded prospect that could get protected by Houston. Colton Gordon, Misael Tamarez, and Abel Mercedes are all arms that could be in danger, to varying degrees, of being poached as well.
As for bats, there is a world where guys like Colin Barber or Pascanel Ferreras get picked by teams that have lots of time to let them grow and have plenty of 40-man space, but Ferraras is a ways away from the majors and Barber is coming off a down season in 2024. Those players feel like stretches to be protected or picked, as of now.