Analyzing the Astros' bullpen options at this point in spring training

The Houston Astros' bullpen had mixed results in 2024. They combined for the eighth-best ERA in the league, but their 4.08 FIP was in the bottom 10. Instead of adding to the mix of arms this offseason, Dana Brown opted to subtract by moving the mostly-effective Ryan Pressly in a salary dump trade with the Cubs.

Without Pressly in the mix, Josh Hader and Bryan Abreu will lead the group in 2025. The former will get the lion's share of the save opportunities. Hader threw 71 innings last year, the most he's thrown since 2019. He was able to notch 34 saves but his 3.80 ERA was a big step back from 2023, and wasn't what the Astros had expected when they paid a king's ransom to acquire him.

Assuming Hader doesn't collapse, Bryan Abreu will serve as the setup man most nights. Like Hader, Abreu took a step back in 2024. He pitched to a 1.84 ERA with an impressive 34.1% strikeout rate between 2022-2023. However, his ERA fell to 3.10 and he ran a 31.7% strikeout rate last year. Those are still strong numbers but with so many question marks behind these two, the Astros really need the best version of Abreu to show up in 2025.

Bryan King is likely locked into his role as well. He's the lone reliable lefty outside of Hader and his 2.71 FIP in 2024 suggests he's capable of handling the workload. In addition to King, the Astros also have the recently signed Jalen Beeks, as well as Bennett Sousa, Steven Okert and Blake Weiman as possible lefties. Okert was effective a few years back but he's been bad in recent years. Weiman is untested, Sousa has been lit up this spring, and Beeks is a depth piece, at best. None of these guys outside of King inspire much confidence.

There are a lot of questions about the viability of the Astros bullpen in 2025

Former top prospect Forrest Whitley is in camp, and is more likely than not to wind up on the Opening Day roster. The righty is out of options and looked really good at times in Triple-A last year. The strikeouts will play so it's just about whether Whitley can keep the ball in the park, which is easier said than done.

Tayler Scott will be back, but it's unclear if he'll work in high-leverage spots. He ran a 4.13 FIP in 2024 and has gotten hit hard this spring. He's also out of options, and the Astros don't seem to want to DFA him. He probably won't surpass last year's 68.2 innings pitched mark but if he can stay healthy, he could be an asset.

Speaking of DFA candidates, Rafael Montero was good enough in 2022 to earn a $34.5 million contract, but since then he's pitched to a 4.94 ERA in 105.2 innings. He was so bad the Astros designated him for assignment after the trade deadline last year. He's in camp right now and he definitely could make the Opening Day roster, but he's far from the best option in any scenario.

Roster Resource has Kaleb Ort making the team out of camp but he's yet to prove he's capable of a full major league workload. He's out of options. Nick Hernandez got thumped in limited major league work last year, and hasn't looked good in camp.

One guy that could surprise us is righty Luis Contreras. He pitched to a 1.74 ERA in Triple-A last year and has yet to allow a run in 5.1 innings this spring. He's got good swing and miss stuff and he's limited walks in the past. If the Astros want to get spicy, they should throw Contreras onto the Opening Day roster and see how he handles it.

All this is to say that the Astros could be in rough shape in 2025 depending on how things play out. An injury or two would be a major issue, and any performance dips from Hader or Abreu will be tough to overcome. The AL West is winnable, but the Astros are going to have to earn it with this group.

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