3 Astros Trade Targets on Teams Falling Out of Playoff Race
Originally, it appeared as though this year’s trade deadline was not going to be as eventful as last year’s. Prior to the trade deadline on July 30, 2021, marquee names such as Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, and Jose Berrios were all dealt to contenders in one of the more memorable trade frenzies that baseball has ever had. This year, Willson Contreras and Luis Castillo were the only players in that tier that appeared very likely to be traded, and the Houston Astros should have at least some surface-level interest in both.
In just a matter of weeks, though, things have changed. Washington’s Juan Soto reportedly rejected a historic contract extension offer, putting his name at the top of the market. In other news, the Boston Red Sox and San Francisco Giants, two teams that weren’t projected to be sellers, both sit outside the playoff picture in their respective leagues following recent slumps. If changes like that continue to unfold in the standings, the trade market is going to look vastly different than it did even a couple of weeks ago.
This is obviously great news for teams such as the Astros, who suddenly might have a far bigger field of players to work with when executing their plans at the deadline. The team has a surplus of starting pitchers, and could use some more production from the catcher, first base, and center-field positions. They don’t have a deep farm system, but they have the advantage of being good enough to use some of their young major leaguers in trades without making the team worse at that level.
If the wild card standings continue to shake up, there will be some clubs that change their approach from buyers to sellers at the deadline. Here are 3 potential realistic targets for them to pursue whose teams fit into that category (in no order; click the “next” button to begin the slideshow)
1. Darin Ruf, 1B (Giants)
The Giants were a hard team to evaluate going into this season. Their roster did not look fit to win 107 games again, but it certainly didn’t look as though they were just a .500 team. Yet, here they sit, 15.5 games back of first place in the NL West and a game back of the Phillies for the final wild card spot. They have lost 3 of the first 4 games in a crucial series on the road against the Dodgers to start the second half, and they’re 34-39 since May 1. They just don’t have the same magic as they did last year, and while they’ll still be in a good position to start next year regardless of what they do at the deadline, they probably shouldn’t be buyers if things continue to go south.
Darin Ruf would by no means be a game-changing acquisition, but there are few better options if the Astros want to add depth and length to their lineup. After a 3-year odyssey in the KBO, he made a remarkable comeback to MLB with the Giants, with 31 home runs and a 125 OPS+ in 240 games since returning to America. He’s 35 years old and would be on the books for at least another season, as his contract carries a $3.5M club option for 2024, per Spotrac.
This season has been his least impressive with the Giants. He has an OPS+ of exactly 100, making him a league-average hitter on the year. He’s defensively versatile, but hasn’t been good whatsoever in left field (-4 Statcast Outs Above Average). He can play both right field and first base, but with all that said, I still think he would be a big help to the Astros in a platoon role at DH.
He has 10 home runs on the season and his 12.6% walk rate is among the best in baseball, which are both good signs, but the most telling thing about him are his righty/lefty splits. He makes up for his deficiencies against right-handed pitchers with his .894 OPS against southpaws in 100 at-bats this year. If the Astros were to find themselves in an pivotal game in the postseason against a left-handed pitcher, Ruf would be a huge help. After all, he has been there before: he homered in an eventual loss in the decisive game 5 of the NLDS last year. He isn’t a star, but acquiring Darin Ruf would go a long way in ensuring that the Astros feel as good as possible about the lineup they send out, no matter who is facing them on the mound.
2. Hirokazu Sawamura, RP (Red Sox)
The current Red Sox regime, led by team president Chaim Bloom, has shown no hesitancy to trade their best players when they slip away from contention, as evidenced by the Mookie Betts trade following 2019. If they continue to stumble and the team actually decides to pull the trigger and punt on this season, they have multiple stars whose contracts are soon to expire, but none in an area of need for Houston.
The Astros’ rotation is so good that when Lance McCullers finishes up his rehab starts, they will have 7 MLB-caliber starters on the roster. While the bullpen has also pitched to an elite level, they can’t claim to have the world-class depth that the rotation does. So, it would make sense if the team felt it was worth it to add one more arm in that area. Enter Sawamura, who got off to a dominant start last year in his first season over from Japan but faded down the stretch. This season, he has been steadier, with a 2.48 ERA and 3.53 FIP through 36.1 innings.
Houston already has plenty of good right-handed relievers, and Sawamura is averaging less than a strikeout per inning, but he would take some pressure off of Phil Maton, who has been shakier in high-leverage spots this season (1.25 WHIP compared to Sawamura’s 1.13). He has been particularly hot in the past couple months with a 1.86 ERA and 7.4 K/9 since June 1 and he has a devastating splitter (.159 opponents’ average), a pitch not seen too often in the game anymore. Best of all, if the team trades for him and can’t find a place for him on next year’s depth chart, they can simply decline his club option for 2023.
According to Spotrac, Sawamura has a salary of just $1.2M, meaning he would come cheap both financially and in terms of the trade package that the Red Sox would likely ask for. It has been an ugly couple of weeks for the Red Sox, who have been held back from their full potential in large part due to their bullpen. Sawamura is one of the bright spots, and if they continue down their current path, he would surely draw some interest from many teams around the league.
3. Garrett Cooper, 1B (Marlins)
If the Astros don’t go the Ruf route and instead deem it necessary to fully displace Yuli Gurriel from the starting job at first base, Garrett Cooper should be a prime target. Not too long ago, the Marlins sat just 2 games under .500 and were likely considering at least a hybrid approach at the deadline. Since then, though, they have lost Jazz Chisholm, the cornerstone of their lineup, due to a back injury, and gotten swept at home in a key series against the Phillies in which they only scored a single run. As a result, they appear to be gearing up to be sellers again, and there are few better fits for Cooper than in Houston.
He has been fully healthy all season for the first time in his career, and currently boasts a 119 OPS+ coming off his first-ever all-star appearance. He is slugging just .426, so he gets it done with more of a contact-and-discipline approach as opposed to just hitting homers all the time. He does an exemplary job of hitting the ball to all fields, and has a batting average over .300 against both fastballs and changeups. The high-contact Cooper would take over the starting job at first base if acquired, demoting Yuli Gurriel to a bench role, but it might be worth the change: Cooper’s OPS is over 100 points greater than Gurriel’s as of now.
Cooper turns 32 following the end of the season, and he’s not the only first baseman in the NL East that the Astros are likely to pursue (Josh Bell), but he doesn’t hit free agency until the end of the 2023 season, meaning that if he’s the one the Astros trade for to address that need, he would be a good segue between Gurriel and whoever ends up being the long-term solution at first base. Of all the players on teams that could become surefire sellers at the trade deadline, Cooper is among the highest-profile names that the Astros could trade for.