Two days later, we now know why I’m not making odds in Vegas or any other town.
Here’s the updated odds for the three best Houston Astros bets for the World Series MVP.
Michael Brantley +550 (was +1000)
I’d like to both apologize and say I made the right call on Michael Brantley. I certainly didn’t expect him to go 5-for-9 in the first two games, but again, it’s really difficult to win the MVP hitting singles and doubles, and Brantley has only one RBI in two games.
I still don’t get Brantley having the best odds of any player on either team, especially if he sits a game or more in Atlanta. If that happens, he’s not winning the MVP.
Jose Altuve +650 (was +1000)
I was on the right side of this one, putting Jose Altuve at +700-750 in what seemed like an easy call to me, and if it’s close, let’s not forget he’s had several highlight defensive plays and a homer into the Crawford Boxes.
For my money, he should’ve been the favorite from the beginning and should be the favorite moving forward. If the Astros win, he’ll be the catalyst.
Kyle Tucker +1100 (was +1200)
I pegged Kyle Tucker at +900 originally and still think that’s about right, though I do understand this number. Yes, he’s batting .429 (3-for-7 with a double, a walk and a stolen base), but there’s no long balls and no RBI yet, nothing that says “MVP”.
Other World Series MVP odds:
Yuli Gurriel +1400 (was +2500)
Seems like a big bump for 3-for-8 with an RBI and a stolen base.
Yordan Alvarez +1750 (was +800)
He’s only 1-for-5 without an RBI, but he’s got a .500 OBP because of two walks. This seems like a huge drop for a guy that can get hot in a hurry and pulverize baseballs for multiple games straight. In my mind, Yordan Alvarez is a value at this price, assuming he plays in Atlanta.
Carlos Correa +2250 (was +1100)
I thought +1100 was the biggest mistake in the original numbers, but Carlos Correa is 1-for-7 in the first two games. This feels too high, but no amount of defense is going to make up for not hitting.
Alex Bregman +4000 (was +1000)
I thought the +1000 was too low (suggested +1400), but Alex Bregman doesn’t look like the same player since his injury. He’ll gut the series out and hopefully come back healthy in 2022.
Luis Garcia (+5000) and Framber Valdez (+15000)
Luis Garcia hasn’t pitched and has dropped from +2500, which is curious, but when he didn’t start Game 2 that tells me he’s destined for one start in the series, which ends his hopes for all intents and purposes.
Framber Valdez started Game 1 and it did not go well, giving up eight hits and five runs in more than two innings. He’ll get another shot, but it’s hard to picture a scenario where he wins the MVP after the results of the first one.