The World Series MVP Odds for the Houston Astros are out over at WynnBET and while I know these odds are based on more than “who’s the best player”, some of the numbers were curious to me. So, I decided to work through them and give my take on a select group of Astros.
Yordan Alvarez +800
This seems about right. I’m one of the biggest Yordan fans and yes, he was hot in the ALCS and quietly had an outstanding regular season. Can he do it two series in a row against top notch competition? We’re about to find out.
Jose Altuve +1000
Who’s the face of this franchise? This I don’t get. This guy is the glue of the best team in baseball, not to mention the biggest name and, oh yeah he hit 30 home runs. His .278 batting average may not impress, but Altuve batted .338 in late/close situations, .320 with RISP and .385 with three grand slams with the bases loaded. I’d put him ahead of Alvarez at +700-750.
Michael Brantley +1000
I love Michael Brantley, but this seems to be a reach. He hasn’t hit a home run since August 15th and MVPs aren’t usually awarded to singles and doubles hitters. The same odds as Altuve, despite the fact that he likely won’t play in all the games just makes no sense.
A part timer with the same odds as Altuve and Alex Bregman? He’s having a good postseason with 14 hits, including two doubles and eight RBI, but I’d place him around +1500.
Alex Bregman +1000
So you’re saying there’s a chance? Yes, there is, but I’d put it lower than this, say +1400. Bregman’s dangerous, but let’s be honest – the injury has held him back.
He’s only barreling balls in the 29th percentile and his hard hit percentage sits in the 33rd percentile, with an average exit velocity in the 43rd percentile.
Carlos Correa +1100
The biggest oversight on this list, in my opinion. Carlos Correa plays a premium defensive position with plenty of opportunities for spectacular, game changing plays, has a superb glove and top shelf arm.
Add 26 home runs and a penchant for the flair and you have an MVP in the making. One problem: Those late close situations look dreadful at .196 with three home runs and seven RBI in 56 at-bats. Despite that, I’d place him around Altuve at +700.
Kyle Tucker +1200
Way too low for a guy with xBA, xSLG, WOBA and XWOBA all in the top eight percent of the league not to mention 30 homers. A concern is his .231 late/close batting average.
I’d place the number at +900. Tucker could be hurt if something goes awry when he’s in center, a position he has 29 Major League innings at. That said, offense rules in the MVP game.
Framber Valdez +1500
This would likely take two starts like the final one in Boston. A tall order, but not impossible. Sounds like a reasonable number to me.
Luis Garcia +2500
Similar to Framber it’ll take two magnificent starts and the odds are less than Framber doing so in my mind. Sounds about right.
Yuli Gurriel +2500
How did the American League batting champ end up here? Yuli’s a contact hitter and it takes a ton of contact hits to make up for that one or two gargantuan, clutch home runs.
Personally, I think he’s severely underrated as a first baseman, but you win Astros fans hearts on scoops, not MVPs. This sounds about right, give or take a hundred each way.