Houston Astros: Trend – Who’s Hot, Who’s Not (Vol 7)

We’ve officially hit the home-stretch of this baseball season, and the Houston Astros are trying to stay atop the AL West.

The last couple of days haven’t been terrific. The Astros managed to score zero runs over their past 18 innings, followed by the announcement that Zack Greinke and Taylor Jones are headed to the 10-Day COVID IL.

But if you take a step back and look at the last two weeks of play, it isn’t all doom and gloom. While Houston has not been playing their best baseball by any means, they still manage to go night and six there last 15 games and still maintain a four-game lead in the AL West.

The Astros finally were able to use their best lineup now with Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker back in the fold, and the Astro starting rotation should get an additional boost with Jose Urquidy rejoining the team this weekend. The Death Star may be fully operational soon, and all those American League Ewoks out there better watch out.

Despite the Mariners and A’s hanging around, FanGraphs still forecast Houston to finish with 95 wins and take home the AL West crown. That should give Astro fans confidence. On the other hand, when I think about the 2007 Mets – the uber-talented team that had a comfy 7.5 game lead in their division September only to lose 12 of 17 and miss the playoffs (biggest collapse in baseball history IMO) – you get nervous.

This race ain’t over yet. And those nine remaining games against Oakland and Seattle could have enormous implications.

Team Trend

Houston continues to churn out great offensive production from this lineup. He said Astros are third in batting average (.283) and eighth in OPS (.783) over the past 15 games. Houston was first in both categories before Seattle’s pitching silenced their bats in back to back games.

This Astros squad continues to do what they’re great at – getting on base and not striking out. Houston is third in walks and have the second fewest strikeouts for any team during this 15-game period. I can only imagine how much both the addition of Alex Bregman and Michael Brantley snapping out of a slump will enhance this strength.

More from Climbing Tal's Hill

• Just how much better is the Houston Astros playoff rotation than the rest?
• Houston Astros: A Lineup Change to Spark Offense
• Astros prospect Hunter Brown throws 6 shutout innings in debut
• Always faithful Astros World Series champion Josh Reddick defends the title
• Michael Conforto declines Astros’ 2-year, $30 million offer

Astros pitching has been kind of what it’s always been this season a mixed bag. Astros pitching is currently 13th in ERA (3.81 ERA), 10th in WHIP (1.17) and ninth in opponent batting average (.228) over the past 15 games. The un-even performances are coming from both the starters and the bullpen now.

Bullpen is posting a 4.23 ERA and a WHIP of 1.30 over the last two weeks, with guys like Kendall Graveman and Ryne Stanek having some disappointing outings. Meanwhile, while Framber Valdez and Luis Garcia are dealing, the other starters (namely Zach Greinke) continue to have unusual abysmal outings that put the Astros in an early-game hole.

Some upcoming home games against bad offenses (Texas, Arizona) could help get some of these guys back on the right track.

Who’s Not

Michael Brantley

I don’t think this is anything to worry about, but it’s worth noting that Michael Brantley is only hitting .244 (11-45) his last 15 games with a sub-.600 OPS. This is being weighed down by his back to back oh for five performances back on August 22nd – August 23rd. He hasn’t been horrible, he hasn’t even been all that bad… he’s just been very un-Michael Brantley like.

This slump kind of come out worst time for those out there who bet on Brantley to win the AL batting title. On August 15th Brantley was hitting .332 and looked like a lock to take the title, now he’s dropped to .317 and is now in a dogfight with both Yuli Gurriel And Vlad Guerrero Jr. for the title.

…But what am I even saying??  We’re talking about the same guy that can go on 12-for-20 tears over a couple of games. Brantley also has sixteen three plus hit games already this season, which is easily more than any other player in baseball. Expect Brantley to find his stroke again.

Jose Altuve

Altuve has not been playing good for a while. The former MVP was red-hot in June and July but has since cooled off. It seemed like Altuve found his stroke again during the a solid home series against the Mariners (8-of-15 during that series) but once again has cooled off on the road. Altuve went .255 (27-106) with only seven extra base hits no home runs and three RBI – easily his worst month of the season at the plate.

Perhaps this is a product of pitching approach. Opposing pitchers in August threw breaking balls to Altuve 37% of the time – a huge uptick from the 27% career mix Altuve has seen throughout his career.

On the other hand, Altuve has not punishing pitchers for throwing fastballs lately, something Altuve has been great at his entire career. Altuve only hit .254 against fastballs in the month of August – way down from his career .314 BA against fastballs. These two combinations have led to a lackluster month from the second baseman.

Some of this could very well be from fatigue, but I can’t help but get worried considering Altuve is on the wrong side of 30. Then again, I felt the same way this time last year – then he mashed in playoffs. Hopefully history repeats itself.

Relievers on the postseason bubble

With the postseason just around the corner, the Astros need to figure out who will make postseason roster out of the bullpen. nephew Astra levers on the bubble didn’t help their cause.

Phil Maton posted 5.87 ERA overs last seven appearances with an ugly 1.65 WHIP. Although his head two recently good bounce back performances, Maton had back to back clunkers against non-playoff teams (three ER vs KC, three ER vs TEX).

Maton’s skill and arm might justify him being on the postseason roster, but he’s very up-and-down with his performances which ultimately might make him unusable in October.

Brooks Raley continues to put up very solid numbers (1.80 ERA, 0.80 WHIP in last 5 appearance) But hasn’t figured out Dylan Moore, is still posting a 5.25 ERA for the season, and continues to get destroyed by right-handed power hitters (OBA .286, OPS – .868- yikes). Unless Houston ends up playing the lefty-bats of the Yankees in the playoffs, I have a hard time feeling confident about putting Raley out against the elite lineups.

More from Climbing Tal's Hill

• Just how much better is the Houston Astros playoff rotation than the rest?
• Houston Astros: A Lineup Change to Spark Offense
• Astros prospect Hunter Brown throws 6 shutout innings in debut
• Always faithful Astros World Series champion Josh Reddick defends the title
• Michael Conforto declines Astros’ 2-year, $30 million offer

Bryan Abreu returned from a stint in the IL to deliver, what can only be described as, a disastrous performance against the Rangers.

Abreu came in to the fifth inning of a blowout and gave up seven earned runs, one mark and one home run without getting through the entire inning. His season ERA ballooned from 4.08 to 5.75 with just that appearance. His control (especially on his slider) and his overall confidence looked as low as it’s ever been in the season.

With Pedro Baez likely done for the season, the Astros will need look further down the roster to figure out which arms give them the best chance for success in the playoffs.

The three mentioned above are obviously still in the mix to earn these spots, but their recent performances didn’t help their case. I would expect Houston to give Josh James or Brandon Bielak or Enoli Paredes some innings in the next couple of weeks just to see what they can bring.

Keep the eye on the prize, Astro fans. They’re in great position for a September/October run for another World Series.