Predictions for Astros Starters’ Final Regular Season Records Pt. 2

We are nearing the end to the regular season, as Astros’ win total predictions have become a hot topic of discussion. (Part 2)

This is part two of trying to predict regular season pitching records for the remaining starters on the Houston Astros’ rotation, and for the record prediction of records has a small buffer attached at the end of each starters name. Now let’s get into the remaining starters in the Astros rotation.

Luis Garcia (14-8 +/- 2)

With the surprising quick rise of Luis Garcia to the rotation, the Astros pitching starters have been solidified. Garcia currently holds a 10-6 record with a 3.21 ERA and he currently is second on the staff in strikeouts, registering 144 so far this year.

With probable starts (subject to Dusty’s whims) left against Seattle, the Angels twice, Oakland twice, and the Padres and Rangers, Garcia could possibly be second on the team in wins if he gets the run support to get him up to 16 wins. Now that is not impossible but to win 6/7 of your last games and not get bumped for no reason by Baker would be a momentous feat. I think he holds strong with four wins and two losses and a no decision but here’s hoping it ends up with 6/7.

Framber Valdez (13-5 +/- 1)

Sitting at 8-4 with a sub 3 era (2.94) Framber Valdez currently leads the Astros in ERA and once August is over he will probably never see the same opponent twice in the remaining starts. He will have two very difficult starts left against San Diego and Tampa Bay and so best case scenario is five losses if he gets the run support in the other games and doesn’t give up a mistake to a non-playoff team.

I expect him to mow down Texas and Seattle in both appearances in September and the Angels and Diamondbacks will be trotting out plenty of prospects so those games shouldn’t prove to be difficult. I would love to see him end with six wins but five wins, one loss, and a no decision seems more probable.

Jake Odorizzi (6-6, 4.46 ERA currently)

I have no idea how Dusty will use him to end the season, I think best case scenario for Astros fans is that he’s long relief in the bullpen if a starter is having an off night. Worst case, which given Dusty Bakers track record might happen, is a six-starter rotation or Urquidy slowly returns. That would certainly throw all these projections out the window. Let’s hope it’s either spot starting for pitchers who need a break for a week or long relief.

Jose Urquidy (6-3, 3.38 ERA currently)

Jose Urquidy’s latest rehab start for Sugar Land on Tuesday resulted in him tossing 4 innings, giving up 2 hits and 1 run while striking out 6. Urquidy threw 49 pitches which is on the high end of average with regards to efficiency at 12.25 pitches per inning (most quality starts pitchers average between 12-15 pitches per inning).

I can’t fairly project his win total not knowing when he will return and how frequent he will pitch upon return so I will say he will likely end up with 9-10 wins best case scenario, assuming he won’t pitch deep enough into his first one-to-two games back to get a win.

After another win over the Texas Rangers on Saturday, the Astros look to close out the series on Sunday at 1:35 p.m. with Zack Greinke countering left-hander Taylor Hearn.