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Houston Astros: Trend – Who’s Hot, Who’s Not (Vol 6)

By Matthew Kunkel |
(Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images)
(Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images)
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We’ve officially reached the dog days of summer, and the Houston Astros are playing … meh.

I mean, the Houston Astros have 8-7 in their last 15 games which isn’t anything to scoff at, but they’ve been experiencing some up-and-down performances from guys and certainly aren’t playing near the level they were back in June.

The recent couple of games includes going forward for on the tough West Coast road trip. The Astros took two out of three up in Seattle Mariners, followed by a series loss to the juggernaut San Francisco Giants then a two-game series split against the “holier than thou” Los Angeles Dodgers. Houston came back home to lose three of four to the hapless Twins, before bouncing back for a nice two-game sweep of the Colorado Rockies.

Houston still maintains a lead in the AL West, but the Oakland Athletics aren’t going away anytime soon and the Astros will need to pick up their play if they want to hold on to this AL West lead.

The numbers suggest some good stuff on the offense – Houston is 11th in the majors in OPS (.760) and are 11th in batting average (.262) over the past 15 games. Pretty impressive numbers considering the pitching that the Astros faced on that eight game West Coast swing.

The Astros pitching has been a bit of a struggle. Although Houston is 9th in ERA (3.40) over the past 15 games, they are also 20th in WHIP (1.35) and 16th in opponent batting average (.242 BA) during that time. For the first time all season, the source of the trouble isn’t the bullpen. These high WHIP numbers are linked to the recent performances by the starting rotation – namely Jake Odorizzi and Zack Greinke getting tagged on the road, and Framber Valdez continuing to walk batters at an alarming rate.

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Despite the ho hum last two weeks, things are still looking good for the Astros. The return of Alex Bregman and Jose Urquidy will get the team closer to full strength, as will the return of Yuli Gurriel and perhaps even Josh “Flames” James.

Houston also has a favorable stretch of games to close the season – they only have 12 of their last 48 games against teams who are in any real playoff contention. Houston still gets to play 10 games against the Angels, 7 games against both the Rangers and Royals, and 3 against the Diamondbacks. If the stars align just right, Houston could go something like 35-13 and head into the playoffs with a ton of confidence.

If Houston can gather their strength for the last push, they should finish around 100 wins and reclaim that AL West crown.

Mandatory Credit: Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports
Mandatory Credit: Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports /

Hot

La Pina Gang

The La Pina Clan ain’t nothin to mess wit (shout out to Wu-Tang). The Cuban trio of Yordan Alvarez, Aledmys Diaz and Yuli Gurriel have been on a tear – combining to go 40-for-111 over the last 15 games, for an OPS of .955.

  • Yuli Gurriel – 12-23 (.522 BA), 2 HRs, 7 RBIs, 1.411 OPS
  • Aledmys Diaz – 15-46 (.326 BA), 3 HRs, 11 RBIs, .891 OPS
  • Yordan Alvarez- 13-42 ( .310 BA), 4HRs 10 RBIs, .984 OPS

With Bregman still on the IL and other guys nursing nagging injuries, this trio has managed to anchor Houston’s potent offense in the past couple weeks. Aledmys Diaz has been Houston’s MVP for the first half of August – playing terrific at both the plate and the field since returning from the IL.

Yuli Gurriel was back to his old raking self that we saw in the beginning of the year before his most recent short trip to the IL. And Yordan Alvarez seems to be finding the barrel more and striking out less. Being able to depend on these three great dynamic hitters and plug them into advantageous positions in the batting order has kept this Houston offense as potent as ever, even with the injuries.

This trio has got swag and substance. This group goes on dates with your moms and keeps on hitting bombs. They keep blowing bubbles and hitting doubles. They keep driving in runs and having funs.  The La Pina Gang just keeps raking and raking. And I can’t wait for their offseason mixtape.

Mandatory Credit: Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports
Mandatory Credit: Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports /

The New Arms

Kendall Graveman

Sure, we all wanted Craig Kimbrel at the trade deadline. Who wouldn’t? But I gotta say – Kendall Graveman is it beast. And every time he’s pitched in the Astros uniform makes me question what was Seattle thinking letting this guy go?

Graveman has thrown eight strikeouts and only allowed two hits in 5.1 innings pitched. – that’s good for a 0.38 whip and a .111 opponent batting average. His fastball is in the upper 90s and has movement, and his slider is just flat out nasty (45% WHIFF rate). Good luck hitting against him.

Rafael Montero

Another questionable call by the Seattle was the choice to DFA Rafael Montero before including him in the trade with Graveman. Montero is pitched six very solid innings in four appearances for the Astros it has been very good – 0.00 ERA, 5 strikeouts, 2 walks, 3 hits. Montero also has a strong arm and has a balanced mix of his four-pitch repertoire that frankly has looked very good. He recently went on the IL, but I’m very fascinated with Montero’s potential–  especially if he gets an offseason fine-tuning things with Brent Strom.

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Yimi Garcia

The former Dodger prospect was another great acquisition by the Astros the trade deadline. Although he hasn’t been as lights out as Graveman, Garcia is still showing his effectiveness – 2.45 ERA in 4 innings pitched with six strikeouts and a .083 OBA. His lone mistake was in his first inning as an Astro on July 31 where he gave up to Yastrzemski – since then he’s been solid. It’ll be interesting to see where and when Dusty will use Garcia, but he’s another undervalued solid bullpen arm Houston can rely on.

Phil Maton

Okay, so he isn’t on fire statistically speaking  – 5.79 ERA in 4.1 innings pitched. But Maton pitches beautifully — he’s got a great release and the action he can generate with the ball on his pitches is impressive. And the way he makes his motion looks so easy and fluid and effortless– it reminds me of Roger Federer hitting a tennis ball. The guy generates so much spin (2,700-3,000 RPM) and so much whiff on all his pitches it makes you drool at his potential.

Let’s hope he can find a way to turn it into more outs.

Mandatory Credit: Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports
Mandatory Credit: Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports /

Not

Veteran Starters

The two veteran starters in the rotation have hit the skids lately. Zach Greinke and Jake Odorizzi have combined for a 6.10 ERA in their last 5 starts. They have teamed up for a ballooned 1.60 WHIP, a .302 BA and 11 home runs. Yuck, Yuck, and Yuck.

For a team with championship aspirations and a young pitching staff, Houston needs to have great play from their veteran starters. That just isn’t the case the past couple weeks.

Zack Greinke

Zack Greinke is posting a 6.30 ERA with a 1.70 WHIP and 6 homers in his past two starts – which includes the 4-home run game he allowed at San Francisco. The Cy Young winner has not made it past six innings and has not exceeded 4 strikeouts in each of his last five starts. He’s posting a 6.6 strikeouts per 9 innings – the lowest in his career since his rookie season.

He’s still generating a ton of soft contact and is around his career average with WHIP, so I’m not as worried as I would with others. Perhaps he could use small adjustment in his pitch selection (he’s been using the slider 33% in his last couple starts – up from 15% in May), but I wouldn’t be concerned about a bonafide ace like Greinke.

The stakes are not as high in mid-August as they will be in October. When the stakes are high, Greinke tends to perform at the highest level.

Jake Odorizzi

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Odorizzi had a terrific bounce-back game against the Rockies ( 5IP, 3 hits, 0 ERs), but that still doesn’t help us forget that 4-home run disaster he served up in LA last week. The right-handed veteran is posting a 6.05 ERA in his past three starts with a ballooned WHIP of 1.43 and opponent BA of .259. It gets worse when you look back to Odorizzi’s play from July through August – He’s averaging a 5.93 ERA, with a 1.55 WHIP and .275 OBA in his last six starts.

Odorizzi has shown the ability to beat up on lesser teams (Colorado, Baltimore) but he has been absolutely  shelled against the better lineups, like he did against the White Sox on July 17th and against the Dodgers on August 4th.

This last stretch of games will be important for Odorizzi to find his form and earn a spot in the postseason rotation. If he can find a way to get through five innings a start without any serious damage – like he did on Tuesday – that would be more than enough for this revamped bullpen.

Next. wRC+ indicates elite offense, with one caveat. dark

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