Astros: Post Trade Deadline Odds for West, Pennant and World Series
Now that the dust has settled from the trade deadline frenzy and the players settle in with their new teams, it’s time to take a look at the updated odds for the Houston Astros winning the AL West, AL Pennant and World Series. The numbers below were posted on VegasInsider.com as of 12:30 EST, Sunday, August 1.
Before we dive into the numbers, it’s important to note that more goes into odds than simply assigning a number to a team based on how good a given team is. The odds could change without a change in personnel, for example, based on the market and the perception of value.
If everyone bet on the Astros, then their odds would likely change, even though they could be the very same team they were the day before. The Astros are prohibitive favorites to win the AL West coming in at -1400 odds. Converted to a percentage that works out to a 93.3%, which I tend to agree with given my projected win totals for the Astros, but sounds a bit high for a team with only a 4 ½ game lead with 56 games to go.
With the Astros grabbing relief help at the deadline, what do their postseason odds look like now?
The Astros (+200/33.3%) and Chicago White Sox (+275/26.7%) are the favorites to win the AL Pennant, while the Red Sox (+450/18.2%) and Rays (+550/15.4%) are the only other teams given more than a 10% chance to represent the AL in the World Series.
Given the events near the trade deadline, it shouldn’t be a surprise that the Los Angeles Dodgers are the odds on favorite to win the World Series at +300 (25.0%) with the Astros coming in at +450 (18.2%). The White Sox and Padres are the only other teams given more than a 10% chance of winning the World Series.
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Perhaps the most interesting number on the list is the +1000 (9.1%) given to the team that’s had the best record in baseball for most of the year, the San Francisco Giants, which puts them equal to the New York Mets and just above the Red Sox.
The Giants have been doubted all year, by fans, fangraphs (projects a team playing .629 ball to finish season 30-27) and now Vegas.
The Astros entered August as huge favorites to win the West, have the best odds to win the AL Pennant and second best odds to win the World Series. Not a bad place to be as the final two months of the regular season begin to play out.