Astros: Wild Card, Divisional and World Series Odds

When the losses are as ugly as Saturday’s it’s sometimes easy to forget the game was just one piece of the 162 game puzzle that is a full MLB season for the Houston Astros. One way to get over that 10-1 blasting is to realize that 93 games into the season the Astros have put themselves in a really good position when considering postseason and World Series odds.

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Over at FanGraphs where the projection is 95.4 wins for the Astros, Houston is given an 85.6% chance of winning the AL West, and a 10.3% chance of winning a Wild Card, which means a 95.9% chance of making the playoffs. FanGraphs also pegs the Astros a 15.4% chance of winning the World Series, which works out to roughly one in every 6.5 chances.

Over at fivethirtyeight.com, they’re predicting 97 wins for the Astros, an 88% chance of winning the West, a 96% chance of making the postseason,  and set the World Series odds at 14%. Baseball Reference projects 96.8 wins for Houston, a 95.6% chance of winning the AL West, 3.3% chance of obtaining a Wild Card, giving the Astros a 98.9% chance of making the postseason.

Of these three, Baseball Reference also gives Houston the best chance of winning the World Series at 16.5%. While those odds may sound low, only the Los Angeles Dodgers are given better odds of winning the World Series and that goes for all 3 projections.

With 69 regular season games to go there’s a lot of season left ,and every day brings the possibility of injury or illness, especially in these unprecedented times.

Every hit by pitch (Aledmys Diaz, for example) or pop fly in between that could lead to a collision could be a season changer in a big way. That said, the ball club has proven the ability to go long stretches without one or more of their star players, with Alex Bregman playing in only 59 games and Michael Brantley with 70 to date, along with a myriad of more minor injuries and illnesses to other position players and the pitching staff.

One bright side of Saturday was that with the notable exception of Bregman, the regulars were all in the lineup, which over the course of the season will favor Houston in most games.