The Astros should beat the 2021 season wins betting total

Baseball will be underway in less than one month, and many out there are speculating on how the standings will shakeout. With lots of aggressive moves in the offseason, there’s sure to be steep competition for the top of the standings, especially in the American League where teams like the Chicago White Sox and the Toronto Blue Jays went all in for a postseason run.

Over/Under win totals set by bookmakers are a great proxy for performance expectations this upcoming season. As expected, the Los Angeles Dodgers project to have the best record in MLB for 2021, as Vegas has their win total at 101.5 wins. The New York Yankees are the next highest at 95.5, followed by the Padres at 94.5 and the Braves at 92.5.

After a regressed 2020 regular season, the Houston Astros should beat the betting totals in 2021.

The Houston Astros, coming off a disappointing regular season followed by a somewhat redeeming post season, seem to be forgotten amongst the pack of contenders in the American League. Oddsmakers opened with Houston at 87.5 but has since moved down to 86.5 wins for the season (87-75 record). Bookmakers actually have the Oakland As at 87.5 wins for the season, so Vegas is projecting Oakland as the favorites to win AL West race for a second straight year. (Just for reference, the state “rival” Texas Rangers are slated at 69.5 wins for the season – so kudos to them).

This win total for Houston is understandable – the Astros lost both George Springer and Justin Verlander, and it appears they’ll be without Framber Valdez at least a few months. There is also a good chance most of the public bettors are Astro-haters and could be betting the number down in hopes of Houston tailspin in 2021. However, win totals tend be off from time to time, and I think this is the case for this year’s Astros. Here’s why the Houston Astros will beat the 86.5 win total.

Houston’s undervalued rotation

The Astros may not have the juggernaut rotation of death they once had, But Houston might have one of the deepest rotations. Zack Greinke is a former Cy Young winner, McCullers has ace-level stuff and is playing in a contract year, Jake Odorizzi is a 15-game winner still in the prime of their career, and both Jose Urquidy and Cristian Javier have shined in starts in both the regular season and post season.

Brandon Bielak and Luis Garcia have also shown some promise as starters last year and could push for playing time in 2021. And if Framber Valdez can return sometime this season, Houston might be quite frisky come playoff time. Houston may not have a guy in the rotation who’ll throw multiple 14K games or produce a low deGrom-esque ERA, but this rotation can get outs and get dubs.

The bullpen is stronger than last year

One of the storylines from last year was Houston’s inexperienced bullpen and how well they would fare down the stretch. Well, they did pretty good – nearly going toe-to-toe with the Tampa Bay Rays in the ALCS. Now this bullpen comes back with experience and more reinforcements. Ryan Pressly returns in his second year as the team’s projected closer. And Enoli Paredes, Blake Taylor, Brooks Raley and Andre Scrubb all come into the season looking to build on successful 2020 campaigns.

But the Astros didn’t exactly keep it status quo with pitching. Houston went out and got Pedro Baez (career 3.03 ERA), Ryne Stanek (career 10.9 SO/9) and Steve Cishek (132 career saves) for bolstered bullpen depth, and welcome back Joe Smith (career 2.98 ERA) to the fold. Houston should have some serious competition for bullpen spots, and this group ought to be one of the better bullpens in the American League.