The Astros should beat the 2021 season wins betting total

Baseball will be underway in less than one month, and many out there are speculating on how the standings will shakeout. With lots of aggressive moves in the offseason, there’s sure to be steep competition for the top of the standings, especially in the American League where teams like the Chicago White Sox and the Toronto Blue Jays went all in for a postseason run.

Over/Under win totals set by bookmakers are a great proxy for performance expectations this upcoming season. As expected, the Los Angeles Dodgers project to have the best record in MLB for 2021, as Vegas has their win total at 101.5 wins. The New York Yankees are the next highest at 95.5, followed by the Padres at 94.5 and the Braves at 92.5.

After a regressed 2020 regular season, the Houston Astros should beat the betting totals in 2021.

The Houston Astros, coming off a disappointing regular season followed by a somewhat redeeming post season, seem to be forgotten amongst the pack of contenders in the American League. Oddsmakers opened with Houston at 87.5 but has since moved down to 86.5 wins for the season (87-75 record). Bookmakers actually have the Oakland As at 87.5 wins for the season, so Vegas is projecting Oakland as the favorites to win AL West race for a second straight year. (Just for reference, the state “rival” Texas Rangers are slated at 69.5 wins for the season – so kudos to them).

This win total for Houston is understandable – the Astros lost both George Springer and Justin Verlander, and it appears they’ll be without Framber Valdez at least a few months. There is also a good chance most of the public bettors are Astro-haters and could be betting the number down in hopes of Houston tailspin in 2021. However, win totals tend be off from time to time, and I think this is the case for this year’s Astros. Here’s why the Houston Astros will beat the 86.5 win total.

The bullpen is stronger than last year

One of the storylines from last year was Houston’s inexperienced bullpen and how well they would fare down the stretch. Well, they did pretty good – nearly going toe-to-toe with the Tampa Bay Rays in the ALCS. Now this bullpen comes back with experience and more reinforcements. Ryan Pressly returns in his second year as the team’s projected closer. And Enoli Paredes, Blake Taylor, Brooks Raley and Andre Scrubb all come into the season looking to build on successful 2020 campaigns.

But the Astros didn’t exactly keep it status quo with pitching. Houston went out and got Pedro Baez (career 3.03 ERA), Ryne Stanek (career 10.9 SO/9) and Steve Cishek (132 career saves) for bolstered bullpen depth, and welcome back Joe Smith (career 2.98 ERA) to the fold. Houston should have some serious competition for bullpen spots, and this group ought to be one of the better bullpens in the American League.

The offense should return 

The Astros bats were very inconsistent to the last year, and they seemed possessed by the ghost of Bill Bergen (look him up). The Astros were snake bit with injuries and individual slumps all season which really seemed to affect the offensive output.

MVP runner-up Alex Bregman was injured down the stretch, Jose Altuve had a 2020 to forget, Yuli Gurriel slumped hard at the end, and Carlos Correa was fading badly at the plate until the playoffs came around. Oh, and AL Rookie of the Year Yordan Alvarez only played 2 games. In short, four of the teams best players had down years and their best hitter missed the entire season.

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Those five players combined for only 6.7 Wins Above Replacement (adjusted for a full 162-game season) in 2020, opposed to the amazing 24.1 Wins Above Replacement those players generated in 2019.  That’s a 17-game win differential.

The Astros were a .500 team in 2021 with those five players struggling. If those guys return to 2019-levels, Houston will likely have the best offense in baseball. And they’d be an easy 90+win, maybe even a 100-win team. I’m banking those players will be closer to their 2019 performance than their 2020 performance.

The big question obviously is how Houston can replace George Springer. Carlos Correa or Jose Altuve might be options for the leadoff position, as could Myles Straw, who will get the first crack at replacing Springer in center field. Keep an eye on if minor leaguers Steven Souza Jr., Chas McCormick or Pedro Leon earn some ABs throughout the season. If one of those players can pop with opportunities at the plate, then the Astros could really be cooking on offense.

I think the Astros will finish with a 92-70 record and win back the AL West. There is just too much motivated talent on this team for Houston to sink back to .500 baseball. Expect a solid revenge tour from the boys in orange.