Astros: Current, former players Hall of Fame chances

Now that the disappointing 2021 Hall of Fame results are behind us, it’s always fun to look forward to future possibilities. MLB.com recently made a list of 40 active players who are future Hall of Famers, and there are a few Houston Astros on that list. How accurate is that, and are there any players they missed?

Which active current and former Houston Astros will make it to the Hall of Fame?

It’ll be a while before we earnestly have these debates, of course, and there are more cases to be decided before then. Former Astros closer Billy Wagner, for one, seems to be making significant progress and should hopefully end up in Cooperstown. I’m still of the opinion that Lance Berkman should have at least gotten a longer look than he did, but that horse has since left the barn.

Both of those players, if they did end up in the Hall, would likely have worn Astros caps on their plaques. Thus far, Craig Biggio and Jeff Bagwell are the only ones to do that. So that’s something else to consider with respect to the active players — will they go in as Astros, or will they represent another team?

Of course it’s difficult to predict such things, especially with the voters being perfectly willing to leave out worthy candidates based on illogical reasons or their own personal biases. Hopefully that will improve in the coming years, though I’m not optimistic. Regardless, here’s my best attempt at looking at these active players’ chances.

Current Astros – The Locks

Justin Verlander

Justin Verlander will be out all year recovering from Tommy John surgery, so it’s entirely possible his Astros career is done. He’s already a lock to make the Hall of Fame, with 71.8 career WAR, more than 3,000 strikeouts, two Cy Young Awards, an MVP, and 226 wins. I’d be surprised if he doesn’t get in on the first ballot.

But an Astros cap? While he’s been incredible since coming to Houston, he spent the vast majority of his career in Detroit. If he were to come back and pitch a few more seasons with the Astros, then there might be a conversation. But for now, he’s definitely looking like he’ll be wearing a Tigers cap on his plaque.

Zack Greinke

With 72.2 career WAR, MLB.com has Zack Greinke as a no-doubt Hall of Famer, and I agree. He has 208 wins, a 3.37 career ERA, and could end up with 3,000 strikeouts if he pitches effectively for a couple more seasons. He’s also a six-time All Star, six-time Gold Glove winner and has a Cy Young on his mantle. I don’t know if he’ll be in on the first ballot, but he’ll make it for sure.

He’s bounced around quite a bit in his career, though, so it’s not clear which team he would represent. If he pitches a few more seasons with the Astros, it’s entirely possible there’s a conversation to be had. Right now, I’d say the Royals (where he spent his first seven seasons) are the most likely, even though he had his best years with the Dodgers. This one’s yet to be determined.

Current Astros – The Ones With Work To Do

Jose Altuve

With 36.5 career WAR, a lifetime .311 batting average, 1,610 hits, six All-Star selections, three batting titles and an MVP, Jose Altuve is halfway to an excellent Hall of Fame resume. He turns 31 in May, so he still has time to add additional hardware and beef up those counting stats. If he reaches 3,000 hits, it’ll be hard to argue against him, and he’s all but guaranteed to go in as an Astro.

Of course he’s coming off a poor 2020 regular season, but his postseason performance gives us hope that he’ll look like his old self moving forward. The sign stealing scandal is going to be the big question mark, as some voters will likely hold that against him despite the fact that he didn’t use the trash can scheme and never wore a buzzer or anything ridiculous like that. Logic dictates that if his numbers are worthy, he’ll get in eventually, but the voters could still screw it up of course.

Alex Bregman

Alex Bregman has amassed 23.4 WAR in just five seasons, so he’s certainly on the right path. He turns 27 in late March, so the next few years should be his prime. If he can continue to play solid defense, draw a bunch of walks and rack up the extra-base hits, he could build a nice Hall of Fame resume by the time he’s in his 30s.

As for his chances of going in as an Astro, he’s under contract through his age-30 season. That would have him in Houston for at least his first eight seasons. If he remains with the team beyond his current contract, there’s a strong chance he would represent the Astros if he makes it to Cooperstown. If he moves on, it’s anybody’s guess.

Carlos Correa

Carlos Correa is only entering his age-26 season and already has 26.3 career WAR, so he’s also on a solid trajectory. The main issue is that he’s been unable to stay healthy, appearing in more than 110 games only once in his six seasons. He’s also been inconsistent at the plate, but we all know how lofty his ceiling is. If he can stay healthy and play to his potential, he’s got Hall of Fame written all over him.

His future with the Astros is even more up in the air. He’s due to hit free agency after this season, and while many fans, including myself, have been clamoring for the team to sign him to a long term deal (and Correa himself has said he wants to remain in Houston), no such deal has materialized. It would be a shame if Correa were to cement his Hall of Fame resume elsewhere.

Yordan Alvarez

Premature? Maybe. But Yordan Alvarez is still only 23 and already has a Rookie of the Year award in his cabinet and looks like the next David Ortiz. Knee troubles basically wiped out his 2020 season, but if he can stay healthy, he’s going to mash. There’s a long way to go, but he looks like the type of player who can end up with 500-plus homers.

It’s also way too soon to know if the Astros would be his team if and when he gets into Cooperstown, but we all certainly hope they will be. Alvarez is one of the best young hitters to come along in some time, so we’d love nothing more than to see him continue to drop baseballs into the upper deck at Minute Maid Park.