Astros should not pursue Kevin Kiermaier trade with Rays

Though he might be available, the Houston Astros should not pursue a trade for Kevin Kiermaier.

While some teams are making moves and other teams are at least appearing to pursue certain players, the Houston Astros look to be about as alive as Jacob Marley on Christmas Eve. With two starting spots still open in the outfield, the availability of Rays center fielder Kevin Kiermaier might be enticing, though the likelihood of him being traded isn’t clear.

It would be entirely understandable if they did have interest. As of now, the only center fielder on the Astros roster is the light-hitting Myles Straw, and outside of Jackie Bradley Jr (and the soon-to-be-departed George Springer), there isn’t much on the free agent market in the way of true center fielders. General manager James Click previously worked for the Rays, so there may be some familiarity here.

Kiermaier is arguably the best defender at the position in the game today, and has been for the past several seasons. He’s compiled 16 defensive WAR in his career and won three Gold Glove awards, so you’re not going to find anyone better to patrol center field. In spite of that, I’m of the opinion the Astros should not pursue trading for him.

Stay Away

For one, Kiermaier isn’t exactly a strong offensive player. He hasn’t come particularly close to posting a league average OPS since 2017, and his career mark is slightly below average. He’ll hit a home run every now and then and steal a few bases, but he hits for a low average, doesn’t walk much and strikes out too often. He’s failed to even post a .300 on-base percentage in three different seasons.

He’s also had difficulty staying healthy. Prior to 2020, he had played in 130 games in only one of his six full major league seasons, and that was back in 2015. Kiermaier will also turn 31 in April, so he’s unlikely to improve much even if he does manage to play in 150 games in 2021. He’s an elite defender, but the negatives are too many to ignore.

Then you have to look at the price tag. Kiermaier is set to earn north of $11 million in 2021, and north of $12 million in 2022. There’s also a $13 million club option for 2023 with a $2.5 million buyout. So unless the Rays kick in some cash, the Astros would be on the hook for at least $25.83 million over the next two years for a guy who hasn’t stayed healthy and doesn’t hit well.

That doesn’t even include what the Astros would have to give up to acquire him. They’re already dealing with a farm system that has tumbled in the rankings due to trades and the graduation of top prospects to the majors. Many of the team’s best prospects aren’t ready for the majors yet. A trade for Kiermaier (or anyone else for that matter) would further deplete the system.

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Better Options

I’ve been a proponent of the Astros signing Bradley, and he could very well come at a lower salary than Kiermaier depending on how the market shakes out. He may be a small step down defensively, but he’s a better hitter and wouldn’t require trading prospects. But Click appears to be waiting out the market, so it’s possible he’ll miss out on Bradley.

If that happens, there are still better options than Kiermaier. Straw’s bat hasn’t come around yet, but he’s a good defender and has game-changing speed, and would cost a heck of a lot less than Kiermaier. Former Astros fan favorite Jake Marisnick is a free agent as well and would represent a cheap alternative.

Marisnick is a pretty similar player in that he doesn’t hit for a high average, doesn’t walk much, strikes out a lot, will steal a few bases and hit the occasional home run. He’s also a plus defender with a cannon for an arm, and the Astros wouldn’t have to pay him anything close to what Kiermaier is making.

The point is if you’re willing to sacrifice offense to get a premium defender, there are less costly options. I’m not saying I wouldn’t welcome Kiermaier, but it wouldn’t make any sense to acquire him given what it would take to do so.