Astros: ALDS preview, predictions, keys to the series

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The Houston Astros are set to take on the Oakland A’s in the ALDS.

The time has come, Astros fans. It’s been a roller coaster of a season, but now the hometown nine appear to be on the upswing as they’re coming off a sweep of the Minnesota Twins in the Wild Card round. They’re set to take on their division rivals, the Oakland A’s, in the ALDS.

The best-of-five division series pits a pair of teams together who’ve seen each other 10 times this season already. Oakland won seven of those meetings, but don’t be fooled by that. All seven of those Astros losses came on the road, and this series is being played on neutral ground at Dodger Stadium. All bets are off here.

The A’s dethroned the Astros in the AL West this season. Houston had won three straight division crowns, but Oakland, after a pair of 97-win seasons in 2018 and 2019, finally broke through. The Astros dealt with myriad injuries and several key players underperforming in this COVID-shortened 60-game season, which caused them to finish 29-31, seven games behind the A’s.

The teams also had a dustup on the field earlier this season when Oakland outfielder Ramon Laureano charged the Houston dugout after exchanging words with hitting coach Alex Cintron. The A’s have been vocal about wanting to prove they’re the better team, and both teams seem to be relishing the opportunity to prove who’s best.

Today’s opening game will begin at 3:07 p.m. CT. Tuesday’s Game Two will be at 3:37 p.m., and Wednesday’s Game Three will be at 2:35 p.m. If games four and five are necessary, they’ll also begin at 2:35 on Thursday and Friday, respectively. All games will be broadcast on TBS.

Sep 9, 2020; Oakland, California, USA; Teammates surround Oakland Athletics center fielder Ramon Laureano (22) after hitting an RBI single for a walk-off win against the Houston Astros during the ninth inning at Oakland Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports /

Team Comparisons

Lineups

During the regular season, in spite of their struggles in September, the Astros still had the better lineup. Houston was ninth in the AL in OPS, seventh in runs scored, 10th in batting average, 10th in home runs and fourth in doubles. Oakland was 10th in OPS, eighth in runs scored, 14th in batting average, ninth in homers and 10th in doubles.

They’re also missing their best all-around player, third baseman Matt Chapman. Jake Lamb has filled in admirably, but key players like Matt Olson, Ramon Laureano and Marcus Semien have all struggled this season. The only players who hit above .250 are Lamb (who played 13 games with the team) and trade deadline acquisition Tommy LaStella.

The Astros had solid seasons from George Springer, Michael Brantley and Kyle Tucker. There are some real sleeping giants in Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Yuli Gurriel and Carlos Correa. Even without Yordan Alvarez, this is a dangerous lineup, and if most of them can get going, the Oakland pitching staff will have a tough time. ADVANTAGE: Astros

Defense

The Astros had the fewest errors in the AL and the best fielding percentage. They have a Gold Glove candidate at shortstop in Carlos Correa, former Gold Glove winners Josh Reddick, Altuve, Martin Maldonado and Zack Greinke, and other excellent defenders in Springer and Gurriel. This isn’t a group that makes many mistakes.

The A’s finished fourth in the AL in errors and fielding percentage. However, they’re missing arguably the game’s best defensive player at any position in Chapman. Olson is a Gold Glover, but the loss of Chapman is big. They’re still not a bad defensive team, but losing an elite talent like that is never a good thing. ADVANTAGE: Astros

Starting Rotation

The Astros are starting Lance McCullers in Game One and Framber Valdez in Game Two. McCullers was on fire down the stretch, and Valdez was the team’s most consistent starter all year. Future Hall of Famer Zack Greinke and postseason phenom Jose Urquidy loom for the next two games, and hotshot rookie Cristian Javier could be used in a possible Game Five. This is a solid group from top to bottom.

The A’s will start Chris Bassitt in Game One and Sean Manaea in Game Two. Bassitt had a great year, posting a 2.29 ERA in 11 starts and a 2.65 ERA in three starts against the Astros. Manaea pitched to a 4.50 ERA this season, and Jesus Luzardo, who could go in Game Three, put up a 4.12 ERA.

Oakland has two other candidates, one of which is Frankie Montas, who had a 5.60 ERA this year. The other, of course, is Mike Fiers, who had a 4.58 ERA this year but has been avoiding the Astros like the plague and did not pitch well in the Wild Card round. So the A’s have a quality ace in Bassitt, a couple of respectable starters in Manaea and Luzardo, but a couple of potential liabilities in Montas and Fiers. The Astros’ superior depth is the difference. ADVANTAGE: Astros

Bullpen

Oakland has assembled a stout group of relievers. Closer Liam Hendriks is a stud, with a 1.78 ERA and 37 strikeouts against just three walks. J.B. Wendelken, Joakim Soria, Jake Diekman and Yusmeiro Petit all had excellent seasons as well, with Soria being the only one of these five with an ERA above 2.00 this season (his was 2.82). They have a few other intriguing arms as well, and they rely on this excellent and deep bullpen for a lot of their innings.

The Astros got by in the Wild Card round with only using two of their traditional relievers, but that won’t be the case this time. Ryan Pressly has been a bit shaky as the closer, looking dominant one day and blowing a save the next. Rookies Blake Taylor, Enoli Paredes and Andre Scrubb have done well this year, but Paredes and Scrubb have issues with free passes and none of them have seen the postseason.

Brooks Raley has been decent as a lefty specialist, and Josh James pitched brilliantly in the season’s last couple of weeks. It’s hard to rely on anyone beyond this group, though, and together they don’t have nearly the pedigree of the Oakland bullpen. Dusty Baker will be trying to squeeze as many innings out of his starters as he can. ADVANTAGE: A’s

Aug 29, 2020; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Astros center fielder George Springer (4) and designated hitter Michael Brantley (23) celebrate with right fielder Josh Reddick (22) after scoring runs during the first inning against the Oakland Athletics in game two of a double header at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports /

ALDS Prediction, Keys to the Series

As expected, this is going to be a hard-fought ALDS. I picked the Astros to lose in the Wild Card round so I considered doing so again just to avoid tempting fate, but I do believe Houston will emerge victorious this time if players step up and play to their potential.

The game plan has to be to score as many runs off the starting pitchers as possible. It’s going to be a tall task to beat Oakland’s bullpen, so the Astros will need to get a few runs off the starter and chase him from the game early. If they can make the A’s wear out their bullpen, that’ll help in the latter part of the series.

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On the pitching side, how many innings the starters can go will be key. Baker needs the starters to at least go six innings, as the Astros simply don’t have the bullpen depth to throw four or five innings of relief every game with there being no off days in between. You don’t want to have to throw Cy Sneed out there in a close game.

To make the offensive game plan work, the Houston hitters will need to get the job done early in the game. Springer, Altuve, Bregman and Gurriel struggled at the plate against the Twins, and the team simply can’t afford to have that many impact hitters going cold. They don’t all have to hit .750 with a couple of homers, but they need to get on base and then come up with timely hits, especially against Oakland’s softer starting rotation.

I think this series is going to be a back-and-forth affair, ultimately going to a winner-take-all fifth game. The A’s will try to avoid using Fiers, but when it comes down to Game Five, they’ll have no choice. The Astros will get their revenge by scoring a few runs off their archnemesis in Dodger Stadium and will advance to their fourth straight ALCS. PREDICTION: Astros in 5

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