Astros: Postseason format could make things difficult

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MLB’s postseason format for 2020 isn’t doing the Houston Astros any favors.

Major League Baseball announced its postseason schedule on Tuesday, and it’s certainly different from what fans are used to. There are more teams involved, of course, but we already knew that. What we know now is when and where the games will be played, and the Houston Astros probably aren’t celebrating it.

For one, they won’t be playing any postseason games at Minute Maid Park. Instead, the league is instituting a “playoff bubble,” so to speak, and in doing so, they’re ensuring no team has home field advantage. Depending on seeding, the Astros would go to either Los Angeles or San Diego if they make the playoffs.

Minute Maid Park will host some playoff games this year, but they’ll be for National League teams. A pair of NL Wild Card series, along with the ensuing NL Division Series, will take place in Houston. The NLCS and World Series will both be in Arlington to showcase the Rangers’ new stadium, and the ALCS will be in San Diego.

Format and Schedule

The first round (referred to as the Wild Card Round) will be a best-of-three. The division series will be best-of-five as they typically are, and the LCS and World Series will all be best-of-seven as usual. But there’s a big difference that teams will have to deal with — there will be no off days during each series, with the exception of the World Series.

Teams usually enjoy a couple of off days in each series to accommodate for travel, but since there will be no travel in these bubbles, the league has eliminated the days off. There will be at least one off day, if not more, between each series, but there will not be any days off during a series until the World Series itself.

LOS ANGELES, CA – SEPTEMBER 13: Zack Greinke #21 of the Houston Astros pitches against the Los Angeles Dodgers in the first inning at Dodger Stadium on September 13, 2020 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by John McCoy/Getty Images) /

How This Affects the Astros

Two words: pitching depth. That has been an issue for the Astros all season, and it’s really going to be tested if they get to the playoffs. It won’t matter so much in the Wild Card round since it’s only a best-of-three, so they’ll only need three starting pitchers at most. But let’s assume Houston wins its Wild Card matchup and moves on to the Division Series.

That would mean the Astros will need a full five-man rotation if the series is to go all five games, unless they plan on using their Game One starter on short rest in Game Five. Given the way pitching injuries have piled up across the league this season, teams may be more reluctant to do that than they otherwise would. Thankfully the league is keeping the rosters at 28.

On top of that, teams can’t ride their best relievers in most games like they can when there are off days. The Astros will need a full bullpen and a full rotation, and that will be even more true if they make the ALCS, which will be seven games in seven days.

During their playoff run in 2017, the Astros got a total of 68.1 percent of their innings from only four pitchers — Justin Verlander, Dallas Keuchel, Charlie Morton and Lance McCullers. The 2019 Nationals got 58.6 percent of their playoff innings from the trio of Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin. Teams won’t be able to do that this year, and they can’t hide shaky bullpens like the last three champions have done.

OAKLAND, CALIFORNIA – SEPTEMBER 07: Cristian Javier #53 of the Houston Astros pitches in the bottom of the first inning against the Oakland Athletics at Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum on September 07, 2020 in Oakland, California. (Photo by Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images) /

How the Astros Will Line Up

As far as the starting rotation goes, let’s assume (and pray) everyone is healthy. They’ll have Verlander, Zack Greinke, McCullers and Framber Valdez as their likely first four. Dusty Baker has expressed a willingness to use Cristian Javier in relief, which would be a great boost to the bullpen and would work fine in the three-game Wild Card round.

But if the team advances and needs a fifth starter, the choice will come down to Javier and Jose Urquidy. Brandon Bielak isn’t going to be trusted, and though Luis Garcia has impressed, he’s only had two major league outings. I would rather save him for a multi-inning relief role and let Javier or Urquidy take the ball to start a game.

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In a normal series with off days, both Urquidy and Javier could be utilized in relief, but now one of them will be needed in the rotation. On top of that, the key relievers like Blake Taylor, Ryan Pressly, Enoli Paredes, Andre Scrubb and Brooks Raley are going to be used like crazy. Baker can’t really trust anyone else, and there’s an argument that Taylor is the only one who can really be trusted anyway.

I’d rather not think about what happens if Verlander or McCullers isn’t ready for some reason. Verlander hasn’t pitched since Opening Day and McCullers has struggled all season. If Baker can’t use one or both of them, the Astros would have to use both Javier and Urquidy in the rotation, and maybe even Garcia too.

So, in other words, the team’s bullpen won’t be as deep as it otherwise would, and with no off days, depth is more important than ever. It won’t matter much in the Wild Card round, but if the Astros advance any further, their pitching depth is going to be severely tested and possibly exploited.

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